ExpressCard won't take off until 2nd half of 2007

FYI this report from DigiTimes about ExpressCard :

Q: How would you describe the current stage of ExpressCard adoption by the industry?

A: The adoption of ExpressCard technology appears to be in a product transition phase. This is illustrated by the following facts. First, ExpressCard slots are being introduced into an increasing percentage of new host system offerings. Second, the broad range of applications in the ExpressCard module form factor are being introduced. This transition phase is expected to continue throughout 2006 with a likely transition to broad acceptance phase, at least in the notebook market, in mid-to-late 2007.

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You can buy laptops right now with an ExpressCard slot, but you probably won't see a lot of affordable ubiquitous products until 2007. However, it's a safe bet that most laptops sold in 2006 (including every Yonah/Merom) wil likely have an ExpressCard slot.

This is relevant to laptop decisions right now. For example, I just bought a T42 from Lenovo/IBM, not a T43. The former has 2 cardbus slots, the latter one expresscard and one cardbus. The presence of the express card slot is really not a major selling point at this time which would be an argument in favor of the T43. If I have any need of card accesories, it will probably be a combo 2USB/1FW card sometime next year.

I dont have any specs for express card handy. if anyone wants to share links to some good info, do post them here.

Some other tidbits from the DigiTimes report:

Q: What are the most popular ExpressCard applications? Do you forecast more applications in the future? Do you see the cards used with not only notebooks, but also other types of host systems?

A: Current applications include Gigabit local area network (LAN) adapters, storage solutions, parallel adapters, serial adapters, TV tuners (analog and digital), card readers, instrumentation, IEEE 1394 (A and B versions) adapter and serial ATA (SATA) adapter modules.

Eventually, we expect that all existing PC Card applications should be supported with ExpressCard module products, including communications (wired and wireless), storage (solid state and small, such as one-inch, rotating optical and magnetic microdrives), security (identity sensors and token readers), adapters (flash memory cards, I/O interface adapters, display adapters) and multimedia (TV tuners, audio and video interface adapters).

Q: What is your forecast for previous generations of plug-in I/0 cards (PCMCIA, PC Card)? Do you think that they will disappear from the market in the near-term future?

A: Market trends are hard to predict. But two trends support the fairly rapid adoption of ExpressCard technology and the displacement of PC Card technology in PCs. First, PCI Express, on which ExpressCard technology is partially based, offers significant performance and cost benefits over conventional PCI (on which PC Card is based). Secondly, PCMCIAs modular technologies (either PC Card or ExpressCard) are used in more than 90% of all notebooks. In addition, there is an increasing trend for consumers and businesses to switch from desktops to mobile PCs as their preferred platform that will, according to a recent In-stat/MDR report, increase mobile PC share of the PC market from its current 25% level to almost a third of all PCs shipped by 2008. Given those two points, we believe ExpressCard technology will replace PC Card technology as the solution for I/O expansion for mobile computers.

It should be noted, however, that in specialized applications, such as embedded systems, we expect PC Card technology to continue to be useful. Such systems often have lifecycles of 10-20 years, so a transition to ExpressCard technology will either be slower or never happen at all. As an example, we are seeing an upturn in PC Card use in the consumer electronics world, specifically for HDTV sets with cable access cards based on PC Card technology. Although PC Card technology will not be common in traditional PCs, it will not be disappearing as a useful technology anytime soon.

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azizhp Notebook Geek