While Intels eDRAM will have a big impact on the industry, it is not a direct threat to the high volume vendors like Samsung or Micron. The DRAM business is mostly a low margin, commodity business where cost metrics drive decisions; there are a few exceptions such as specialized solutions for high value applications such as networking or graphics. To give a rough idea, spot prices for a 128MB DRAM range from $1-$3. Intel has incredible margins by any standards (50-60%), and is uninterested in businesses where the gross margins are around 10-20% and silicon is essentially free. However, the custom DRAM market is a different story altogether.
Assuming our estimates are correct, the co-packaged 128MB eDRAM for Haswell will probably be 70-80mm2 (suggesting that the GT3e Haswell variant is around 210-240mm2). The embedded DRAM data arrays alone are at least 60mm2, and that doesnt include overhead such as the controller and physical layer interfaces to the host SoC. Intel is rumored to be selling this part for around $50, which should give margins similar to low-end or mid-range client SoCs. While the price is less than a comparable-sized SoC, the cost should be lower since fewer layers of interconnect are needed. Conceptually, it will increase Intels manufacturing volumes and fab utilization without substantially sacrificing margins. As an added benefit, Intels integrated graphics will become much more robust and competitive.
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