New System: January or July?

So I'm likely to come into some money that can be thrown at a new system when January 2012 rolls around, and I'm looking into my options early to build some anticipation...or something.

Right now I'm rolling with this machine:

Sager NP8662
1680x1050 Native Resolution
P9700 @ 2.8 GHz
GTX 260M overclocked to 650/1625/910
4GB 1066MHz RAM
Windows Vista

Right now I feel like waiting until June/July instead of pulling the trigger the moment I have the cash, under the assumption that nVidia's best Kepler GPU (GTX 680M, or the equivalent) will provide at least 20% more performance than the GTX 580M in terms of actual in-game FPS. I don't have any hard proof that this will be the case but it's a lowball estimate as far as I'm concerned. With 4x the computing power per watt compared to Fermi, there had better be a solid jump in an enthusiast-level card's performance to match.

Likewise, Intel has stated that Ivy Bridge ought to provide 17% (or was it 15%?) more performance than similarly designed Sandy Bridge CPUs, so I might as well get both Kepler and Ivy Bridge together, assuming Clevo manages to put together a new setup soon after the tech actually becomes retail-able.

As it is, my current rig generally satisfies my gaming needs. The Witcher 2 was the first game where I actually felt my system's age, since I was running it on all low settings below my native resolution, at 1440x900.

Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Mass Effect 1 and 2, Starcraft II, and SupCom Forged Alliance work fine at med-high settings, so I honestly can't complain much.

My only issue now is that Skyrim is approaching and my computer just squeaks past the minimum requirements, like it did with The Witcher 2. Hopefully the game is optimized enough so that isn't a problem, but without any further news on the subject I'm kind of in the dark.

Beyond that, I'm somewhat interested in a medium-size SSD for my primary hard drive as well, and the prices on those can only go down, I hope. 250GB or so should be more than enough to hold games and my OS, while I can rock a cheap 500GB external for all my files and such. The potential for backlit keyboards, an unlocked bios, and all those other lovely features listed in that improvements thread over on the Sager/Clevo subforum is a solid reason to wait as well, imo.

I'm posting now because it doesn't look like there'll be much improvement in the released mobile tech between now and January, barring the incoming 520 series SSDs. Both Intel and nVidia aren't looking to release anything big until next year in terms of notebook CPU/GPU, afaik.

What do you guys think?

EDIT: Other upcoming titles in which I have some interest are Diablo III and Mass Effect 3, both of which come out in March 2012 and both of which will likely run fine on my current rig. More reasons to push until June/July, I guess.

 

Personally, if you can't buy a laptop until 2012, then I would wait until April of 2012 for Intel's Ivy Bridge to be released.

 

If you feel like you have to play Skyrim as soon as possible you might be stuck buying in January, but if you've got some patience it'll pay off in the long run to wait.

Just remember, there's always something bigger and better on the horizon of computing, so functionally the questions are, "How long do I have to wait? How big a boost is being offered? What do I do in the interim?" In your case, the wait is effectively about 3-4 months for Ivy Bridge or 6 months or so for Ivy Bridge and Kepler (this is based off of your timetables, I don't know the timetables myself). I would say that means if you're going to wait for Ivy Bridge, the opportunity cost of waiting for Kepler as well is fairly low, but the overall opportunity cost of waiting for both, 6 months of waiting, is fairly high.

The bottom line in my opinion is that you've got a machine that can still acquit itself pretty well for the next several months if you don't expect the stars, so waiting is probably in your best interests. If you were currently stuck with an older computer it would be different, but in your current situation I advocate waiting.

 

Also you have to consider that the latest and greatest of each model will also be the most expensive.

 

True, but what buys a mid-range Sandy Bridge i7 quad-core and a 6990M today should buy a mid-range Ivy Bridge 17 quad-core and the 7xxx equivalent of the 6990M in July, meaning more power and better battery life for the same dollar.

Again, the latest and greatest technology is always on the horizon so anyone who's not upgrading annually or better is going to miss out on new goodies from time to time, but my personal evaluation of the OP's situation is that he's already equipped with a machine that can help him to hold out until the next tech refresh.

 

I agree that waiting until IB comes out is not a big deal because January to April is a relatively short wait (a year or two if you're in a hurry though is a different matter).
A mid-range system containing IB and 7xxx as gcrussell1 said will probably come about to the same price as a mid-range SB equivalent today.

In the end, you get less power consumption and a bit more speed/power out of it.

 

CPU just doesn't matter enough to wait for, but holding out for the next generation of mobile GPUs does make sense.

And I'd be shocked if AMD or Nvidia is as late to the party as June/July.

 

Your current laptop will run Skyrim fine.

Wait for Ivy Bridge and the 28nm GPUs. 260M is enough for all the current games

 

* = if you're willing to greatly compromise on graphics settings.

Also, as far as upgrading sooner goes, keep in mind that the 6990M and 580M are already 3x the speed of your GTX 260M. So it's not like upgrading sooner than 28nm would be a waste of money.

 

I say reapply thermal paste on the gpu and cpu(shouldn't be hard with Sager) and see if any cooling mods can be done. After that oc them as much as they can go to squeeze every last fps out of them

 

Can't OC CPU with the Sager NP8662. The GPU would be the biggest bottleneck though, and even with a decent OC won't be a significant gain. Although the games you mention should run fine on your config with low detail though.

 

Thanks for all the replies, everyone. Though I haven't seen any updates wrt nVidia and Intel's new offerings in 2012, I think I'll hold off until they arrive, whether that is in February or April.

I may not be gaming as much on the NP8662 anymore, however, as it seems that the GPU is starting to give out. An underclock/undervolt has curbed the 'failure during games' problem but I'm still on thin ice as far as I'm concerned. I can't afford to push the hardware too much when I also rely on the system as my sole workhorse for any Uni-related work as well.

 

i agree with kevin, ib wont give anything that sb cant gaming-wise.

there are some really good deals on the sager8150 now and i think the 6990 is only a 150usd upgrade from stock. could be worth looking at as that card is powerful.

but if you must have the newest and greatest, wait on for the next generation gpu; not cpu.

 

If you are just worried about Skyrim, don't. It'll run fine on most machines; heck, it's a souped-up Gamebryo engine. Gamebryo runs on toasters.