No 20nm GPUs this year: 28nm refresh by end of year

Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere here:
No 20 nm GPUs from AMD This Year | techPowerUp
NVIDIA GM204 and GM206 to Tape-Out in April, Products to Launch in Q4? | techPowerUp

Sigh, was waiting for those to buy a new notebook. Not sure what to do now.

 

Notice the question mark in the title of that article? It's speculation.

The "new details about Maxwell" thread already mentioned this article a couple days ago.

 

There are two articles I linked, one was speculation obviously, the other doesn't seem to be. I'll quote it here:

 

TechSpot is reporting the same thing, and I consider them to be a reputable news outlet.

20nm GPUs unlikely in 2014 due to TSMC issues - TechSpot

 

Hmm, wonder if there are warning signs going off for Apple as they decided to go with TSMC for their 20nm A8 chips for the iPhone 6/iPad Air 2.

 

You mean my prediction of Q4/Q1 is being confirmed even more? What a shock

 

You must have similar sources methinks.

 

I really wanted to get a new laptop this year but i guess i'll hold for a little longer, damn it.

 

28nm maxwell ain't bad. There is always something better around the corner


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No it isn't a bad upgrade, but that means no replacement for the aged Kepler GK104 (i.e. 680m/680mx/780m/880m) this year.

 

I would disagree. The 780m and 880m are a waste of cash but based on 860m performance upgrading to a mawell high end part from the 680m and 7970m is actually a very decent jump in performance
Those that don't have money to burn will still be waiting with these parts like myself. I would happily take 40-50% increase in performance . Could be more. Especially if priced right

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You disagree with my statement? I agreed with you, lol.

I agreed that Maxwell would be a good upgrade. Just that we won't have an 880m replacement until Q1 2015 now.

 

Lol maybe i scan read past your first few words lol


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Yea, no surprises here, but definitely disappointing to here it from one more source.

 

This summer looks poor. Same haswell with just a partly refresh (aka 4810 and higher) and no GPU upgrade except 860M... but it was since the beginning of the year. Really poor.

 

I don`t believe for a second that we won`t have any new Maxwell cards in the upcoming summer. I be sick in my stomach if I have to wait another 6 months to replace this notebook.

GTX 480M was announced in the summer of 2010
GTX 580M was announced in the summer of 2011
GTX 680M was announced in the summer of 2012

All between these launches, we had rebrands and small steps like GTX 485M, GTX 675M, GTX 880M.

Nvidia must screw up bigtime if they are not able to push out any new cards this summer. No single Kepler chip have been made since Titan came out in Ferbruary 2013. GK110 was their last chip, and its over a year old. After that we had all sorts of rebrands and small steps to milk the cow some more.

Fully agree. GTX 870M and GTX 880M are a waste of money for those who own the last generation high ends.

 

Perhaps the difference this time is pretty much zero competition from AMD. You notice how Maxwell was launched at the segment AMD/Intel are actually competing, low and mid. They are all by themselves at the high performance segment for notebooks.

 

Great point here. If you're in product strategy for NVDA you basically want a 1:1 mapping to your competion's offering. If you look at the low-mid to mid-high range e.g. , this is where AMD has offerings that NVDA needs to match (and, ideally, subtly beat) - and this is where they did match with 28nm Maxwell. If you look at the high end, there's a giant, gaping void on AMD's map -- there is absolutely no need for NVDA to release new tech since their "old" tech already has the high end to itself.

The only way NVDA will release a high-end Maxwell 28nm is:

a) Competition -- Not happening
b) They need to get the chips out the door so as to not slow up their roadmap (although there's decent leway on the calendar here)

All things considered, all things point to a high-end refresh not happening anytime soon, 28nm or not.

 

I don't agree that this is a move based on competition, if nVidia, you would want to dominate your competition and have the 1st 20nm while AMD is still stuck on the 28nm.

This is either A.) really is a production issue with TSCM and their 20nm process, or B.) already was planned based on release schedule via each generation move (and maybe why 20nm Maxwell wasn't mentioned during their conference?).

 

Of course. But this refresh is worth waiting for even if nvidia ships it at 28nm. If I bought now, I'd just be buying the 580m basically which would still be huge upgrade from 540m but I want something a little more juicy this time and the cooler it runs the better. Many of us are anxious because if you have a 680/780/880m you'd be wasting your money on a rebrand. Nvidia is pulling an apple on us and milking the cow for what it's worth and it's not worth it.

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No doubt that the lack of competition from AMD is making Nvidia slowplay.
Nvidia have already released GTX 750 Ti and Maxwell. AMD is the one who needs to make a move and show what hand they got.

This year have started pretty strange. AMD was the one who was first out with GCN in 2012, then Nvidia responded 2 months after that with Kepler. Now Nvidia was the first one out with a new architecture. Back when those GCN/Kepler released, it was on a brand new node. Now we are maybe looking at the same node as 2012. No wonder why rumors floating around that TSMC have messed up. Both AMD and Nvidia are without their own foundries and rely on TSMC to produce their chips.
On top of all of this, Intel`s Broadwell is either launching in Q4 or in 2015. When Kepler and GCN was out, we had new chips from Intel ready in May that year.

Can`t anyone do anything right? :/

 

Despite all of this, gaming on notebooks is still better than its ever been. Waiting game at this point to see the real new stuff next year.

 

The 880m just came out so does that mean we will see another 880m variant possibly increased cores and +100MHz core clock ?.

 

Yup, new one based on a much more efficient architecture. It should have a lot more cores, and Maxwell seems to run cool even though its over 1GHz.

I`m waiting for this one. I`m sure many other do to. Frustrating to wait, but what can you do.

 

I like how you mentioned that it will run cooler and will be more efficient. In my opinion, even if the performance isn't an astounding 50% gain (as we all have rumored and hoped for) I still feel like upgrading would be worth while considering those two factors alone: heat and efficiency. You would think if the cards consume less power and create less heat, you'd be able to overclock them much further, correct? Or am I wrong in thinking that? With that being said, I'm sure the performance gain will be adequate, probably around 30%.

 

So should i hold off upgrading my 770m at the moment until the rebranded 800m comes out ?.

 

I would personally.

 

Yes the new 860M Maxwell performs almost on par with your card but no better really.

Wait until 20nm Maxwell and we all get handsomely rewarded for our patience

 

I will hold off until they come out and i have seen reviews if they are not a worthy upgrade just going to keep waiting.

Thank you i will wait now until maxwell comes out and focus more on SSD & Memory etc.