Pascal: What do we know? Discussion, Latest News & Updates: 1000M Series GPU's

Fair enough, I guess nobody knows what the real performance benefits are going to be.

 

What they did with Maxwell was definitely impressive, lol. But do you see how many generations it took for them to finally milk 28nm dry? They'll probably "hold back" Pascal and milk it for 2-3 generations until Volta in late 2018. So, maybe by then, the very last of Pascal will be 10x the performance... But who knows.

It will definitely be good, that's all we know.

 

Pascal will be 2x Maxwell is today. I'm holding out for my next top end GPU laptop to get with that.

 

Topic's title is really asking for a John Snow joke. =\

 

It only makes sense. I'll do the same. Let's just hope SLI doesn't get washed out of the market by wannabe desktop GRAPHICS "AMPLIFIERS!"

 

I have watched that presentation: Nvidia CEO's 10x math was just for one very specific use-case - GPU accelerated deep learning - not for generic Pascal vs Maxwell performance (not even for graphics).



It's better to think about it as removing bottlenecks and cutting corners for one class of applications rather than getting magically order-of-magnitude better general raw performance for everything (especially not existing graphics applications like games).

Spoiler: CEO math explanation

For example one huge component of that speedup was having half-floats hardware support (FP16).

You know how Maxwells have really bad double-precision float (FP64) performance but great single-precision float (FP32) performance?

Well, Pascal kinda goes even more in that direction (though in a bit more clever way). If you want to do float computations with half-precision on Maxwells, you can, but you will anyways still pay the same price as for single-precision.

With Pascal, the same silicon that does single-precision computation could be instead also used to do 2x amount of half-precision computations if you ask for it (or 4x number of computation if you use double-precision silicon).

This is what they call "mixed precision", instead of having separate parts of chip dedicated to FP16/FP32/FP64, all parts can do all three precisions according to what's needed.

So if your application can survive with just low precision FP16 numbers you can get more power for "free".

Then of course, if you use smaller numbers, you also get "magically" bigger bandwidth, simply because you can stuff more numbers into the same GB/s. And as Pascal will have HBM, even true raw bandwidth goes up a lot, so this half-precision effect just compounds even more on that.

These effects together do 5x speed-up.

Second component of the speedup is NVLink, new tech in Pascal for multi-GPU-and-CPU interconnection. You can think about it as PCI-Express-plus-SLI-on-steroids. This can help a lot too, but only if your application is bottlenecked on CPU-GPU-GPU- ... connection speed (and likely just if you use many GPUs).

This part does 2x speed-up.

Hence 10x speed-up, in ideal case: for specific applications that need just FP16 precision, running on multiple-GPUs (high-end ones), needing extraordinary amounts of bandwidth.

For things like games, I would expect much more usual speed-ups coming from architectural + die shrink (let's pray Pascal will be 16 nm), so maybe ~2x faster would be more realistic.

 

That helps, thank you.

Here's the official blog: http://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2015/03/17/pascal/

 

Don't forget that 10x number also assumes an 8x Pascal GPU array connected by NVLink over existing 4x Maxwell GPU arrays over the PCIe bus.

So that 10x is really 5x, and that 5x has absolutely nothing at all to do with gaming.

 

2x the performance, eh? Might just replace my 760M if I haven't already got a desktop by then.

CEO Math. Love it.

As for the whole BGA issue, I feel like we won't have to worry about that with Pascal. I think that we will still be getting MXM compatible laptops and GPUs at least for the next couple years.

 

So, um, I don't want to bring up old rumors, but I am curious about one in particiular regading the socket type of Pascal mobile GPU's. When the Maxwell thread was booming, there were rumors going around that Maxwell would be the last generation to support MXM 3.0b.

Does anyone have any information regarding this? Perhaps @Cloudfire, @Meaker or @HTWingNut have some insight to share. What's the likelihood of this happening? In my opinion, it doesn't make much sense. However, given the recent activity in the market (trending toward BGA), I would not be surprised if this were true.

 

I doubt that they will change the interface when MXM still has room. If anything, I would say it's more likely that Pascal is the end of upgradable GPUs period.

 

I've considered that as well. Hope that isn't the case, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were.

 

Personally I think MXM is "soon to be dead" when Pascal arrives. NVlink, one of the features for Pascal, requires a different connection than PCIe. Since MXM is PCIe it will require a new specification for MXM.
We all know notebook OEMs are moving to soldered components now in the computers. Alienware for example is pure solder "heaven". MSI use soldered CPUs, but MXM GPUs. Asus use soldered CPUs and GPUs too I think.

OEMs want soldered components. MXM Sig (the organization that makes the MXM specifications) can`t fight the battle alone. OEMs and Nvidia have far more interest pushing soldered components out to their customers for many reasons.

So 1-2 years from now there will be no notebookreview members getting their hands on the newest GPUs from Nvidia/AMD early until a notebook is released with it. Leaks will be far in between because leakers get GPUs from middle men not complete notebooks which is guarded pretty well by manufacturers.
Restrictions will be made on the components because they lack the VRM`s and premium components you find on MXM cards.

Average Joe won`t even care. The only thing he have changed in his computer is the SSD anyway. He doesnt know how the GPU or CPU looks like. Remaining enthusiasts will flee to desktops for gaming rigs and use these mediocre "gaming" notebooks for work.

 

NVLink is a GPU compute oriented feature, and actually comes in the form of a mezzanine card that plugs into a mainboard and replaces the PCIe connectors. I doubt we'll even see NVLink come to the consumer space because it just adds so little value. (inb4 8-way SLI )

That said, given the current trends we're seeing, I do think MXM is a dying breed. What with Dell (Alienware) moving out of the MXM space, there is just going to be less and less demand for MXM cards. I agree with Ethrem, Pascal is very likely the last stop for MXM, assuming Pascal MXM is even going to be a thing.

 

Why does it benefit NVIDIA to push soldered components? I mean, the MXM versions of their flagship GPUs always cost a bomb (often up to 1/2 of the cost of an entirely brand new machine here in UK). Surely they get a nice, juicy profit margin on those MXM GPUs sold? I would have thought it would be higher than selling their GPUs in bulk orders to OEMs but I am certainly no businessman.

 

If NVLink isnt available for normal consumers, forget what I said above. But its on their roadmap

I don`t know if they prefer it so much over MXM but I would guess more control with how the chips is being used is a positive thing. No switching around by users to reduce the risk of warranty replacements. OEMs solder the die on the motherboard and it stays there for the rest of its life.

But yeah, I too wonder if they would sell more GPUs with MXM

 

Well, it's questionable whether those juicy margins actually go to nVidia or the OEMs. Remember how 290X's price skyrocketed during the mining craze? Yeah AMD wasn't the one who jacked up those prices, and I doubt they charged their AIB partners more for the chips, so all the juicy profit all went to the AIBs instead.

At least in the desktop space nV or AMD only sell OEMs the actual GPU chips and not the whole card, dunno if that holds true for MXM cards. Wouldn't be surprised if it was though.

 

Soldered components are cheaper for nVidia and Intel because all support goes to the system OEM. OEMs don't care because the less upgradable the machine, the faster they can sell you a new one. Coming up next, soldered RAM! They say they do all of this to make the machines thin and light like everyone demands.

Seriously, the future is not pretty. Pretty soon you'll be able to upgrade your hard drive - after a multiple hour teardown and voiding your warranty.

If you think this is all alarmist - go look at the 2015 MacBook... Everything is soldered, even the SSD which is proprietary. Everyone likes to copy what Apple does... So there's the future right there.

 

Unfortunately we're definitely moving towards a BGA world. Hell Intel was considering pushing BGA to desktops for Skylake.

It's funny, because a while back I was contemplating doing an AMD "fun build" because hey, why the hell not. FX-8350 + Crosshair V Formula Z + 290X Lightning = ~$770 + however much I want to spend on a case. Everything else I already have the parts for or can just recycle. Yeah it's a waste of money in the absolute sense, but like I said, it's one of those builds you do "just because" and "for profit Prophet fun".

On a more serious note: I really, really, REALLY hope that Zen works out for AMD, for more reasons than one. If nothing else, we'll at least have a viable alternative should Intel go off the deep end and decide to BGA desktops. Sure the entire enthusiast segment will riot, but keep in mind we account for maybe 10% of Intel's revenue if even that, and 9/10 people don't even know what the hell a CPU is. But yeah, I think I've said this a couple times: in the event that Intel decides to kill off sockets on desktops for good, I'm buying the best AMD CPU on the market and never looking back.

 

Help me, AMD. You're my only hope.

 

The rumors about soldered Skylake are still running, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Intel test the waters with their mainstream and lower end offerings. If they want to maximize profits, they will keep sockets for K, X, and Xeons, raise the price on the socketed CPUs 15-20%, drop the price for the mainstream CPUs by 5-10%, and see what happens. All you have to do is look at the fact people are actually buying the Titan cards from nVidia to know that enthusiasts are willing to pay whatever they have to pay to get more performance. Intel would shove off the support and warranty on the motherboard makers, save a ton of cash, keep their investors happy, and so on and so on. Then Cannonlake comes and they say too bad, so sad.

 

What can I say, late night rage+stress fueled outbursts lel

You know it really pains me to say this -- because I do believe that people should be free to spend their money however they want -- but people with more money than sense really do screw everything up for us. And don't get me started on the need for instant gratification.

Then again I went to grad school, so I guess I'm pretty used to (very) delayed gratification.

 

Yep, enthusiast/hobbyist market is dwindling. Within ten years (probably less), computers will be nothing more than glorified tablets. Everything will cater to the least common denominator for most profit.

Big Business thinks all computers are the same and used for the same reasons. Ignoring and/or gouging the enthusiast market will kill their free marketing from us geeks that tout this stuff to our friends and family. Games are also almost there. So few PC exclusives that actually harness the power of the PC. It's all about consoles and lately about tablet ports. It's scary. We are really regressing. Enthusiasts want their big fat PC boxes because they know that's what they need to run cutting edge technology parts, that they can pick and choose themselves.

Soon it will be which PC do you want? NvIntel option 1 or 2.

Even laptops will suffer the same fate, except you will have different LCD sizes. NvIntel 13", 15", 17" mid range or high performance. That's it.

Oh, and I loathe touchscreens. That's the other thing, maybe they'll eliminate the keyboard altogether. That will be the day I stop using computers except for the most mundane of tasks...

/end rant/

 

Then there's MSi with their 3 years MXM upgrade guarantee. Let's not lose all hope, but indeed, the future is not bright at all.

 

It was actually 2 future GPU upgrades that would be supported and not 3 years of MXM upgrades...

 

FTFY

 

You will at least see the full GM204 I suspect in there, however we could see a return to the MXM-A form factor. Stranger things have happened.

 

Updated the main post with the new road map. Looks like there will be a couple years of "squeezing Pascal's guts" for performance as well.

 

Facepalm. Not unexpected at this point but yeah...

 

Even GabeN won't be able to help us then.

 

GabeN can help us by releasing SteamBox and Half-Life 3 as a SteamOS exclusive. Encourage all new games to be made for the SteamOS and Linux alike.

 

I think you've been taking the "our lord and savior" joke a little too literally or you actually believe it. Look what he just did to Skyrim mods on Steam and then continues to dangle HL3 in front of our face just out of reach. More like the antichrist if you ask me.

 

GabeN master of pc mustard race do not disrespect his authority PEASANT

Jokes aside, the guy is a business man and the most important thing is the bottom line for him, but I think he genuinely cares about the PC community, or at least more so than anyone else at his level. As for Half Life 3, he has stated that it is 'very unlikely' that Valve would make another HL game. I feel like most people are in denial of the fact that it will probably never exist.

In fact, I was just over on /r/pcmasterrace, and they've pretty much turned on him like a hungry pack of wolves because of the mods thing.

 

He never said 'very unlikely' he just denied any information about it. I don't get it though. I'm sure the script is written. It really wouldn't take that much work. They don't need to use uber super game engine to make it work. Just continue in the same vein and finish it up. It has its own art theme, the story is written, and it's just a matter of putting it all together. It would be a shoe-in money maker. Lord GabeN owes us that much.

 

It is going to come, just not anytime soon. I read somewhere in an interview that he's waiting on technology to open up more to tell their story. VR was loosely mentioned in the article.
Personally I'm keener for L4D3.

 

Blasphemy! Half Life 3 is the Valve sequel we truly need. Left 4 Dead 2 didn't end on a damn cliffhanger!

 

Lol yeah L4D isn't the type of game one plays for it's storyline. I doubt it will come out before HL3 either.

 

Too much half life 3 discussion, not enough Pascal.

 

Pascal Pascal Pascal ... Half-Life 3! There! More Pascal than HL3, but wait that's three Pascal! Half-Life 3 CONFIRMED!

 

Cake is a lie, just as Pascal. My mortal spirits is now waiting for DX12, USB 3.1, PCIE4.0 integration. Pascal though interesting is still very far. I'm pretty sure NVD will milk Maxwell until 2017 just like before.

 

I think 28nm is pretty much milked dry, beyond GM204 for mobile. They can add more cores, but that's about it. GM200 is too big for mobile (from what I've read).

 

It makes no business sense to purposely withhold Pascal from the market, in my opinion:

1) It makes more sense to bring in a new architecture readymade for the new fabrication process, rather than bother backporting the Maxwell architecture over to FinFET.

2) NVIDIA are trying to get into the mobile (phone/tablet) sector with their Tegra chips. Holding back Pascal would go go directly against this mobile-first strategy.

3) They'll be in a bad marketing position if they ignore HBM for that long whilst AMD include it with their next GPUs, starting this year.

 

They aren't holding back Pascal... They will release it for desktops as they always do. But they will milk Maxwell on mobile. There's still room there to increase performance without having to cut down Pascal.

 

You are absolutely right.

However, it's about the node and tech needed for good yields. Based on the 20nm delay for maxwell and the high efficiency of maxwell thereof - it only indicates NVD rebranding maxwell until 2017. Also 16nm tape out will probably take place only by mid 2016 or later (my estimate based on what I know). So if no consumer product until 2017 - No pascal. Just my opinions, may be wrong.

And no competition #AMDwherearethou

 

If AMD doesn't launch a new architecture at Computex, there's no incentive for NVIDIA to do so shortly thereafter. Maxwell will still be dominant to anything AMD has to offer. So, yes, more re-branding likely until sometime next year...

Part of me is actually hoping for this because that means the existence of a 980M replacement (e.g. 980MX) may actually be plausible, and I'm afraid Pascal will have a new socket type. But if it doesn't, even better.

 

Well Nvidia doesn't really dictate the socket type, a conglomerate of OEM's do, granted Nvidia basically heads the group the way I understand it. I think current MXM is sufficient bandwidth unless they go to add 384-bit interface. I'd say we're safe until Pascal.

 

All hail lord gaben, the one true bringer of Linux gaming and all that is good and decent in this world

 

You post a lot of dumb stuff but this one takes the cake

InB4 "the cake is a lie" etc. smart aleck response

 

Its usually intentional

 

Pascal makes most sense for mobile though, with it's super duper energy efficiency (according to their roadmap). They didn't hold back Maxwell for mobile, both version 1.0 and 2.0 came just a month after their respective desktop counterparts. A smaller gap than we saw with Kepler.

Is the next fab node not going to be ready until that long? I thought rumours suggested Q1 2016 :S

All the rumours point to AMD readying a new architecture with HBM for June/July this year.