Will notebooks replace desktops eventually?

Seems the technology of a notebook today matches a desktop or surpasses it. For the price range (+$500) of a desktop -- monitor, keyboard, mouse, all the parts, etc.. you can get an equally powerful notebook, especially with the new Intel Core Duo rigs.

For example, I'm getting rid of:

CPU: AMD Athlon(tm) 64 X2 Dual Core Processor 3800+, MMX, 3DNow
(2 CPUs), ~2.0GHz MANCHESTER
MB: ASUS A8N5
Memory: 2048MB RAM Dual Channel CORSAIR TWINX2048-3200C2
Video: EVGA 256-P2-N516-RX GEFORCE 7800 GT 256MB PCI-E GDDR3 w/HDTV
& VIVO)
HD: SEAGATE 80GB ST3808110/380811AS SATA300 7200RPM 8MB 8.5MS
DVD-ROM: LITE ON 16X DVD
Monitor: SamSung SyncMaster 215TW(Digital) Monitor Max Res: 1680,1050
Sound: Creative SB X-Fi Audio
Power: ENERMAX EG465P-FMA WHISPER II ATX 12V VERSION 1.3 460W UL &
FCC POWER SUPPLY

Approx $1000 when new (even built it myself).

With:

Ispiron E1705 - Intel(r) CoreTM Duo Proc T2500 (2GHz/667MHz/2 X 1MB L2 Cache
17 inch Wide Screen XGA+ Display
2048MB Shared Dual Channel DDR2 SDRAM at 667MHz
256MB NVIDIA(r) GeForceTM Go 7900 GS
Etc, etc, etc...

$1,475.63

The advantage -- portabililty and the battery can act like a built in UPS.

Disadavantage -- Can't upgrade the CPU/video card combo. Costs a few hundred more than putting together a desktop.

The argument is you can't upgrade a notebook. Can you truly upgrade a desktop? Within a couple years (or less) there is typically some new kind of bus type/CPU pin/memory/HD standard that forces you to replace most of your rig to put in new parts.

Sorry if this is the wrong forum for this.

 

You do have a good point of view here, but Nothing will kill the desktops. Escecially to the enthusiast. As for mainstream, yeah if people are gonna get killer deals, in which we've seen laptop prices tank in the past 10 years, then perhaps more people will start buying laptops, but then you have to also think about busniess. It's necissary to have the workstation PC and not everyone have a laptop that could fit in someone's bag. Or at Universities or public schools.. I see your point but it'll forever just be a mix of the two.

And PS how long ago did you build your computer...had to been since the AMD price slashes, and just wondered why you bought a 7800gt instead of a 7900gt.... 7900 is cheap and a much better performer, although this series had some bad chips in it they are suppose to be cleaned up now.

 

yes and no, to a big part they already replaced desktop systems (desktop replacement notebooks).. but you will hardly get the power of a SUN SG workstation into a notebook - and even if you do, by that time the demand and necessity for even faster computers have risen, so there always will be portables and less portable computers
also the same with screens.. while a 17" or 19" notebook is like the top of what you can carry around, you can already get like 40" and bigger screens for the desktop.. this will continue..

 

Well, you have other disadvantages with laptops as well. My desktop has around 1.2 terabytes of storage made up of RAID-0, RAID-1, and RAID-5 (software RAID in Linux). Even a high-end laptop isn't going to have anything close to that much storage.

I just upgraded my CPU from an Athlon 64 - 3500 to an Athlon 64 X2 - 4800 (though you can sometimes do this with a laptop as well).

In general, the video card in a laptop is substantially lower quality than that in a desktop. The best video card I could find for a 15.4" laptop was the X1600, for example. And unless you are looking at a monster laptop, SLI is right out.

I'm not at all sure a laptop would be a good choice for my PVR computer downstairs. It doesn't need to be portable but it does need a tv tuner with dual tuners and hardware mpeg2 encoding. It also needs a lot of hard drive space (300GB is really kind of small).

Now, I've been hearing that laptops are going to replace desktops for years. And yes, laptops have some substantial advantages. Heck, I'm hoping my new laptop shows up next week. But I really don't see laptops replacing desktops in many uses. Really, unless the portability is an advantage, there's NO compelling reason to get a laptop.

 

I got the desktop parts 2/13/2006. I think at the time the 7900 GT was either not available or too expensive at the time.

I just imagine that eventually computers will keep getting smaller and faster. It amazes me that the notebook I ordered will outpeform my desktop in many ways.

 

I think people will always like desktops. Normally they are cheaper and are easier to upgrade.

Notebooks have the portability factor but are more expensive because of this.

It ends up being a personal desicion.
Tim

 

Yah true. I just noticed lately, and hopefully it's not a trend, by the time you want to upgrade a desktop component you have to upgrade the motherboard (example - AGP to PCI-E), then upgrade the memory, then there is a new CPU layout, so and so forth. If the notebook prices keep dropping, it might be more feasible for a person to invest in a notebook and just replace the entire thing within a year or two for upgrading? Just pondering the future of PCs. I can't imagine 20 years from now we'll have giant cases and large monitors for PCs. I would think small and portable is the future -- perhaps even with those 3D Visors for a large screen personal experience. Hopefully, hard drives and all mechanical parts will be replaced with something that's with solid state parts or holographic cube type memory.

 

Desktops have always been more powerful than laptops and will remain so.

Take the video cards, a desktop 7900GTX performs better than the equivalent mobile version.
Hard drives - Again the desktop drives for the same speed are faster (7200rpm). They also have drives that spins at 15,000rpm.
FSB - They were at 800FSB years ago whereas notebooks is still at 667FSB max for now.
Notebooks will always be slightly lagging behind because there is a focus on power consumption i.e. battery life.

Desktops are also far easier to overclock...

The comparison you gave is slightly unfair because its about 6 months old. That system now wouldn't cost $1000.

 

Laptops will need longer battery life and WIMAX to be available to really start overtaking desktops. Not to mention better sound cards, video cards, and other hardware. It's happening but very slowly.

 

Not really, but the market share they have will keep growing for the moment and it is quite possible they would wind up taking up the "majority" of the market share.

Desktops will remain far more powerful and they may be relegated to specific usage. (e.g. Games, Workstation etc.)

That will take a while though...the desktops which we find too big and outdated today would trickle down to developing 3rd world countries.

 

Desktops can be upgraded very easily and this alone significantly increases their longevity compared to a laptop. In a laptop you are stuck with what you get but with a desktop you can kep it updated by upgrading.

Also, desktops are far more powerful then laptops and wil always have a market share for dediated gamers and enthusiasts not to mention their uses in graphics design and professional movie editing where a lot of power is needed.

Laptops these days are good but desktops will always have the greater performace advantage. I dont think we will see then end of them anytime soon.

 

There are plenty of reasons for keeping desktops. Upgradeability, better screens, mouse, keyboard, lower prices and better airflow -> better cooling -> better performance.

So no, I doubt the desktops are going away. But a lot of people are switching to notebooks atm because 1) It's "cool", and 2) in some cases it just suits their needs better.

But I kinda suspect we might see a reverse trend in a few years. When all of the "Omg, notebooks are so cool" crowd realizes their DTR notebooks are lagging behind in performance, can't be upgraded, and have inferior screens. Then some of them might just go back to desktops for their primary computer.

Of course, that "counter" trend won't be anywhere near as powerful as the current notebook trend. But I believe *some* notebook converts are going to, well, convert back.

 

Personally I think they will, technology will get to the point when laptops will take over. We will see 1+tb HDDs, and "desktop" GPU's.

 

I think it's more likely that people will choose to have a powerful desktop (at home and/or work) and a lightweight notebook. I travel a lot for work and have never seen anyone with a notebook bigger than 15.4"; the vast majority are 14". The trend for road warriors is toward the smart phones such as the Treo and Blackberry which can do e-mail, internet, take and view pictures/video, etc. I think we'll see travelers dump their notebooks for smart phones before notebooks replace desktops.

 

Desktops cost less overall, and upgrades of course. But I can't be the only one who is getting sick of large and noisy computers. ^^ I use my new dell laptop for everything except gaming now. I cringe when I have to turn on my desktop, and this is after greatly lowering the noise in my rig with a 92mm fan/HSF combo and antecs p150 case.

 

True, you're not. Large is hard to deal with in a desktop system, although Shuttle and such barebones systems have made great progress there.
About noise? A well-made desktop system is completely silent.

My desktop system makes less noise than most laptops I know of. Cost me a few bucks more to buy the proper components, but still nowhere near as much as a laptop with the same specs. And that would have had to be a monster DTR with noisy fans running at 200% constantly)
Instead, I got a cheaper, but whisper-quiet desktop. Hell, you have to hold your breath to even hear if it's on....

 

The best site to lower your noisy desktops. I did it on my desktop rig when I had one. It was whisper quiet.

www.silentpcreview.com

 

ez, I am a regular reader of spc forums. Its where I went to retrofit my current desktop. However unless I wanted to replace my mobo with one that actually fits one of the giganto heatsinks you stick 120mm fans on, replace the HSF on my video card, and replaced the fan on my mobo (would require pulling everything out of the case to remove the mobo), it just becomes one huge pain in the ass. Also good canidate cases for low noise PCs are pretty expensive.

On the otherhand my laptop fan rarly runs when web browsing, and in games if it ever needs to hit full speed, it only does so for a minute (the cooling logic in the inspiron is to click on at high temps for short durations. I can opt to run the fan at minimum speed at all times though to prevent frequent ramp ups at the cost of a constant very quiet whiring noise, like a 2nd hard drive)

 

Impossible. Every advance made in any given computer technology will be greater on the desktop because a desktop system has more "breathing room."

Here's an example: notebook hard drives are in a 2.5" form factor, while desktop hard drives are in a 3.5". By default, the desktop drives have more room for capacity, and always will, because notebooks can't phase solid matter.

More than that, notebooks will always be more concerned with power draw than desktops are, which is why Merom is basically an underclocked, undervolted Conroe. And while Conroe is expected to appear in notebooks, it will only show up in larger DTR notebooks.

And GPUs? Yeah, good luck with that one. There has never been a point in history where the mobile version of a GPU outpaced its desktop counterpart, and there never will be, simply because the desktop will always be able to provide better cooling and thus provide faster clocks.

No, I don't see desktops being phased out, really ever. And I do agree with another poster, I expect them to make a bit of a resurgence as the populace realizes "hey, I can't really upgrade my notebook."

 

Missed that comment pulp, your right though. Desktops will allways be more capable since the hardware will come out in forms that are too "wastefull" (weather it waste to much space, or it waste to much energy) for laptops first. Also unless we suddenly say we dont want 3.5 hard drives anymore and buy only laptop hard drives, desktop drives will allways be larger BECAUSE they are..larger. ^^

 

Won't this change once we get away from the mechanical (hard drives and fans) to something more solid state like holographic memory?

 

Yes, once heat becomes a non-factor in computers, then we will see laptops becoming even with desktops in terms of power.

And who ever heard of holographic memory? Maybe 30 years from now but not anytime soon.

 

"Unlike other technologies, that record one data bit at a time, holography allows a million bits of data to be written and read in parallel with a single flash of light," says Liz Murphy, of InPhase Technologies. "This enables transfer rates significantly higher than current optical storage devices."

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8370&feedId=online-news_rss20

Imagine the processing abilities.

 

esca, considering ive been reading about organic and holograqphic memory for many years now and none of it has come to pass in the consumer market, a new form of memory is NOT on the horizon yet.

 

I think a certain sector of the market will always like huge monitors and large, roomy keyboards. Some people like having a huge chair in their office and a big desktop to go with it.

Plus, there are some aspects desktops only provide - constant expansion space (PCI), lots of overclocking potential, tweakability - and the most important thing that notebooks probabily will never provide out of box - awesome sound (input/output)

 

The biggest problem that will prevent notebooks from replacing notebooks is the simple fact that you can pick up a notebook and walk away with it. This makes them much less secure in any sort of public or work setting, and this will make them VERY prone to theft as soon as people see this possibility. There portability will be there achelehies heel (ohh god I know I butchered that word but I don't feel like opening up something with spell check on it).

 

Spook, my last 3 notebooks featured lock slots. Not full proof but you can use an electronic monitored cable for pretty much full protection.

 

its a personal desicion

 

True, very true, but there are always lazy who don't want to deal with that, or even stupid people who think such a thing could never happen to them.