notebook tech 1-2 years from now

hello,

i'll try to simplify this without getting into too many ambiguous puddles.

-i'm a sort of avid gamer (wow mostly)
-i've been using the same laptop for the last four years. it is a toshiba satellite m45-s165 (yeah imagine raiding w/ an ati radeon xpress 200m 64mb.. intel celeron 1.5)

anyhow..

-really, the only games i can anticipate playing semi-hardcore are diablo iii/sc2, both of which do not come out for another 1-2 or so years i anticipate.
-and yes i realize that it isn't really blizzard's philosophy to avoid maxing out graphics requirements. they don't like alienating poor gamers. still, i'd like to spoil myself with a more than adequate gaming rig.

-so, given all this, i'd like to ask this community.. will the notebooks being manufactured 1-2 years from now have significant improvements in gpu, cpu, battery life, etc. from say the.. G50VT-X2 (which i was thinking about buying) or would there not be much of an upside to saving money for another 1-2 years in order to buy a newer rig around the time when the games i'd actually play are finally out? (geez.. if i wait two more years, i'll have had this toshiba for 6 years lol)

hope that made some sense.

thanks.

 

There will always be significant improvements in 2 years of notebook technology. You could save your money for another 2 years...but when that time comes you will look and ask the same question. Buy a new one when you need or want one...no other reason.

 

Yeah, with Computers and such, there's no better time than Now.

 

short answer. Yes.

Notebooks and computers overall develop technology fast, very fast.

Does this mean a good system you buy now wont be still good in a year or two?

No. I think if you can find the recommended system specs for the games you want to play and push a little past it, go with it. It will last you for atleast 2 years

 

2 years will mean moderate improvement in notebook performance, if you end up buying high-end, you wont have much to worry about, you will still be getting performance along the lines of what the midrange will be 2 years from now.

I'd go ahead and get a system if I were you, waiting is almost pointless, whatever you buy will have at least 1 component obsolete within 2 months.

List of stuff available within 2 years:

Windows 7
1 TB Notebook Hard Drives
256-512 GB high performance Sold State Drives
The mobile version of the NEXT generation of GPUs (ATI 5000 series, Nvidia GTX 300 series)
6-12 GB of DDR3 RAM standard
Intel Core i7 refresh (32nm from 45nm) or next gen AMD processor (post Phenom).
Multi-Touch screens
16:9 screen aspect ratio
USB 3.0

And I'm sure there might be even more important developments I cannot think of (maybe the integrated GPU in CPU thing) that will further alter the next 2 years of computers. Waiting is an endless game, because even if you wait for all this stuff, the NEXT two years will bring even MORE.

 

new chipsets

 

Yes, they will. CPU-wise, you're looking at either Nehalem or Westmere (or AMD's contemporary offerings; I haven't kept up with them as much). The desktop versions of these are out now and they're considerably more powerful than anything in the previous generation. It will take some time to filter down to laptops with reasonable power usage, but when they finally shrink the die size, the CPUs will be very powerful.

The GPU companies don't publish as detailed a plan as Intel, but they've never failed to make significantly more powerful cards over a period of 1-2 years.

One other thing you might not be aware of is the availability of solid state hard drives. Right now, they're kind of small in size, very expensive and some have glitches, but 1-2 years is exactly the time period in which I expect them to become a reasonable alternative for people who're on a budget, but not an extremely tight one.

Basically, if your current laptop does everything you ask of it, there's no reason to abandon it. Don't buy a computer for games that will be out in 2 years -- if you buy something expensive now, you'll probably be able to play them then, but you will have spent more money on an inferior product. There will always be something better so if you need a machine now, you might as well go for it, but don't purchase something you don't need.

 

they newer technology is going to be more costly

You could ask that same exact question forever

"I wont buy one this year because there will be a better one next year,"

Next year-
"well I wont buy one this year because there will be a better one next year,"

its like a car new models come out every year
Ill be doing this getting a laptop(g50vt a1)
in 2-3 years when computer technology goes up a bunch or I cant play games anymore. ill buy a new 1

the x1 will be able to handle almost all games that will come out in the next 2 years, diablo 3 included

 

Dont forget quad cores standard as well as a new operating system as well as much faster grapics cards. Just look at the gpu's from 2 years ago compared to now. There is no contest.

 

yep thats why in 2 years when i have a job and some more money ill be buying a new one

also you can have a old computer and still play online classics like css and bf2 that will be played forever

 

Mobile quad cores are just now arriving, and within a few months there should be some "entry level" quads along with lower prices. It would be a good time to buy a laptop in the next 6 months, but if you can wait a year on top of that, nehalem should be in laptops. Mobile GPUs probably won't change much in 6 months, but around mobile nehalem's time there could be 360/380M GTX

Oh, and of course windows 7 and DX11... I wouldn't doubt the 300 series having DX11 support.

 

It's untrue that now is the best time to buy. Consumer technology is not a smooth curve. There are sudden rises (Core 2 Duo/Nvidia 8 series) and there are price drops (better value). Wait for one or the other.

In terms of laptop technology in particular. I would think its worth waiting for the ATI mobile 4xxx series and they actually represent a new architecture and manufacturing process. Desktop 4xxx series are cheap and power-efficient so the laptop models should be good too.

Nehalem is a waste of money for as far as I can see. It doesn't help gaming (except for a few games) nor most apps except video/photo editing. Might be worth waiting for mobile core 2 quads though. (Or buy a laptop now and upgrade later)

 

Right now definitely isn't the best time to buy. The highest end mobile GPU still has about the same performance as the high end desktop GPU of 2006! And don't forget this is going to be 2009 in a few days.. Wait until a new graphics architecture comes out. The GTX 260 and GTX 280 will never make it to notebooks because of the core size, mabe the next series will but not this one from nVidia. Don't expect it..

 

thats unfair to say it "will never make it" remember they said the same thing about the 9800GTX and guess what its here they'll find a way somehow

 

they did say the same thing about the 8800's. those cards were / are monsters.

 

The notebook versions of the 8800 cards weren't released until nVidia updated it's architecture on the cards. They went from 90nm to 65nm, and a MUCH smaller core size, and heat output. These came IMMEDIATELY after the launch of the new 65nm 8800GT, and 8800GTS 512mb cards, which are also 9800GT/9800GTX's just renamed, same goes for the notebook versions. A new high end card from nVidia that will reach notebooks will probebly be 55nm, or 40nm, and will be a redesign from the GTX 2xx cards, just like the 8800 cards. They couldn't fit the 90nm 8800 cards, much like I don't think they will ever fit the 65nm & new 55nm GTX2xxx cards into a notebook form factor & TDP.

 

thanks!

guess i'll start saving up for the G50VT-X2 then unless there's a better gaming laptop in the same price range (1300ish)

 

What the others have said, if you need it now, buy it. If not, wait until you do. Tech gets updated so fast these days, what was hot one day, is out of date 4 - 6 months later.

I bought my machine with dual 8700's, was unhappy with the standard performance, new the 8800 gtx's would be released sometime in the future, so I returned it, copped the re-stocking fee on the chin, and played the waiting game. A few months later, Dell released the dual 8800 gtx for the M1730, and I jumped on 'em. Couldn't have been happier, they still perform well now.

If it were me in your shoes mate, I'd wait till the next GPU's come out next year as mentioned above.

 

Notebook 9800 GTX is nowhere near the desktop version though.

 

I'd wait until mobile quad cores become more common. The common dual core laptop gets crushed by the GTA IV recommended requirement for the CPU!

 

my system itself is only a little over 1 year old, but the technology is 2 generations behind (in GPU terms), and quite possibly nearly 3 generations behind (in CPU terms), and my notebook continues to max out many new games at 1920 x 1200.

and should i upgrade my processor to the best one from my generation of CPU's, and then possibly install the ATI 3870 cards in my system making a 3870 X2 setup (should i be able to get ahold of one), i can continue to milk the performance out of this system which is pushing a few years old worth of technology.

 

In two years time standard notebook tech will be quad core processors, 4 gigs of ram, 200GB SSD, 256mb Graphics cards, and Windows 7

 

In two years we will all be plugged into the Matrix... no need for notebooks.

 

• Two years from now, Intel will have cpu+gpu's combined, and AMD will have it in 2011.
• Quad cores won't be standard, but will have a bigger presence than now.
• Sub 40nm graphics cards
• Most laptops will be able to switch between dedicated gpu and integrated.

 

2 years from now? quad cores will totally be standard in notebooks. 8 cores will be available for DTR high wattage machines.

and levenly, as far as laptops are concerned, your GPU is only 1 generation behind, and your cpu is current. plus you have 2 gpus... you're fine.

 

To be honest I doubt we'll go from 1280x800 and 1920x1200 to 1280x720 and 1920x1080.
Computer screens are going for 16:10

 

i wouldnt say that its probably about 15% worse but that isnt even really that bad now that they have Liquid cooling in notebooks i think this can help the fact of the overheating problem that currently exists in alot of notebooks.

 

Considering the 8600m GT is fairly common place today for notebook GPU (either at 8600m GT or 9500m GT), and it is almost 1.5 years old, I don't think you'll see a huge improvement.

CPU's even I'd say quad core is not very likely. Most desktops are barely quad core, most are dual core, and that tech has been around for several years.

TBH, I think you'll see notebooks getting smaller and lighter with longer battery life, trending towards netbooks, but with similar GPU abilities of today.

 

Hope I'm not necro-posting, but I'm also interested in the subject matter.
There's a good possibility that we will see another 'transitional period' in technology about 2 years (possibly 2 and a half) down the line.

Standardized techs as far as mid-range laptops are concerned would be the following:
8GB RAM (with possibility of expanding to more given the fact 64bit OS will eventually take over);
Increased capabilities of mid-range gpu's (this is most definitely a given if we take into consideration that ATI is making a competitive standpoint with it's new line of gpu's) ... although how much is questionable given the past track record (let's hope it will be larger than before).
Potential merging of cpu's and gpu's ... but I wouldn't be surprised if mid-range solutions pop up with standardized quads (as in i7 technology).
Mechanical hard drives will probably be much cheaper with a far larger increase in capacity (1TB or more is a possibility since we are talking 2 years down the line).
SSD's will come down in prices with an increased capacity, and there's a possibility they might start replacing the mechanical hdd's (although this transition might not happen in just 2 years ... it's certainly possible).
LED back-lights are a given.
Smaller manuf. processes are also a given for the most part.

Waiting for about 2 or 2 and a half years for the next 'transitional period' would be the best way to go really coupled in a mid-range solution.
That way you get most of the latest technologies for a reaosnable price-tag (but all of this depends on our needs and just what kinds of changes will ensue 2 years down the line overall).

 

If this is about gaming, the main question to ask is:
When the fourth generation of consoles will come out?
Right now, most gaming PCs are way over the third generation of consoles, and therefore, as long as these are around, they'll be able to play all games in the market at top settings.
However, as soon as the fourth generation of consoles comes out, all new games will be set to run on that year's generation of GPUs. I say, may be 1 year old GPUs will still make it on those new games, but nothing before that.
When the next generation of consoles will come out? Let's do a thread about it.

 

I'm in the same predicament as the OP, with the addition of needing a new laptop for business school to replace my 4.5 year old inspiron 9100. The way I figure, I'll get whatever is the best bang for the buck right before school, ride it for two years, then hopefully the law of averages and and MBA will let me not worry about money after that.

A guy can dream right?

 

i never mentioned this but i think we are gonna start seeing like 9600gt's in 12.1" notebooks and 9800 Gpu's in 14" notebooks the small size notebook market is getting huge now this is what they should concentrate on.

 

as long as it doesn't cause our laps to catch on fire using them, I'm all for fast GPUs in small cases!

 

As a corollary to that - what is the purpose of the computer you want to buy? If it is to do things with NOW, e.g you want to play Red Alert 3, Far Cry 2 etc., then getting a laptop now would be perfect. If you want it for Diablo III and Starcraft 2 as you mention, then start getting serious about buying for around the time of their eventually announced release date. If you buy a laptop now, by the time they come out you will likely rue the premature decision.

As people have said, computer tech moves really fast, as do the requirements in games. Even though you may be able to play both games on a laptop bought now, a laptop bought around their release date would play them BETTER.

 

I don't agree,
Diablo II and Starcraft 2 will still have to be compatible with Xbox360 and PS3, so they will be playable on current GPUs, likely on high settings.

 

Why do they HAVE to be compatible hmm?

 

They have to be compatible if Blizzard wants to maximize Diablo III and Starcraft II sales.
They are in a money-making business among other things, so they will make sure to expand on the consoles as well in order to cover majority of the most important platforms.

 

I would love to see a 9800M in a 14.1". It can be a very portable gaming laptop. I think in 4 years, the netbook will play Crysis High at 1280x800 with 30+ FPS. Remember when Doom 3 came out?

 

I was about to say its not about the sales but...who am i kidding of course it is.

OFF TOPIC (SORRY): I still dont think either of them will be ported, if you remember Diablo 1 on the PS1, the controls were horrible and irresponsive. If done right it MIGHT work for SC2 but i think playing D3 with a controller would seriously take away from the fast and furious (sorta) gameplay of the franchise.

Back on topic

Nothing much more to say other than buy to meet your needs, but if waiting year or two can't hurt then why not? I'm with the others who think that in a couple of years we will be seeing high end graphics cards in small form factors.

 

Most certainly. If you were to say in 2004 I will be able to play farcry on a 15.4 " laptop on max settings and 1680x1050 reso they would have laughed. Now for a fact I know you can and that was back in 2007 lol