Future of desktop-replacement notebooks?

We all know that laptop sales have overtaken desktop sales a while ago, with laptops having sufficient amount of power for most users and with the added convenience of mobility, few mainstream users are purchasing desktops anymore. Some have even soon predicted the death of desktops.

At least in gaming and other intensive tasks, desktops will live on but I wonder if one day, laptops will even be able to match desktops in that regard, making them entirely obsolete. It sounds far-fetched where desktops should always have the performance advantage due to the extra space they offer to fit more powerful components.

I am wondering if desktop-replacement notebooks will get larger, thicker, heavier to bridge the performance gap of desktops.

I am hoping for more of these sorts of notebooks to be produced and bring down their price compared to gaming desktops. I'm also hoping for them to become much more upgradable, such as manufacturers developing more mobile videocards and standards for easy upgradability, maybe even motherboards so we can upgrade to the latest platform instead of buying a whole new notebook such as from Core 2 Duo to i7.

I liked the concept of the Asus C90 notebook which came out back in 2007 but sadly, Asus has not refreshed it nor gave it much support.

I have already seen notebooks with desktop processors. Fitting desktop graphics cards seems all but impossible, but it looks as though we can soon connect them externally to notebooks and just about making them full-blown desktop replacements.


What do you guys think?

 

They definitely won't go away but it's really more of a niche market, and belies the daily portability factor where people who buy laptops normally gravitate to. Niche markets are hard to survive on, and since they don't generally generate the bulk of the sales for companies, they don't get as much attention from R&D/marketing/management/etc. The trend now is towards all-day computing and portability.

I do see your point though, that it would be a good idea to have a user upgradable laptop but the components are probably so small in sales, that companies don't pay attention to manufacturing them. It's all about profit, low volume sales items tend not to get much attention unless they can sell for high profit. I can see the volume being too low to really warrant them "wasting their time", so to speak.

I know of many users who buy a laptop to replace their bulky desktop setups but they are basic users who don't need upgradable graphics, and the only things they really ask for are a good size screen, dvd writer, wired/wireless internet access, and ability to hook up their printer/scanner to it. And their budget is generally under $800, nowhere near a real gaming desktop replacement. I can find them 17" widescreens that fit the bill for them but aren't upgradable other than the normal cpu/ram/hdd/wifi components.

 

If future laptops allow you to freely change the gpu with ease to the most up to date, it will be one step closer to replacing desktops.

 

I am hoping that as notebooks are ever increasing in popularity, among them being gaming notebooks, there can be more R&D done for desktop-replacement models to further bridge the performance and upgradability between them and desktops.

I hope some manufacturers will take more interest in "whitebooks", barebone notebooks where we can put in our own processor, GPU, HDD, etc.

But we know that some components like GPUs in notebooks are difficult, expensive and hard to find to purchase separately and few notebooks have the MXM slots to upgrade the GPU, most of them being desktop replacements. But these still do not have the performance of a desktop GPU so I would also like to soon see external enclosures where we can put in a desktop GPU and connect it to a notebook. This is already happening but the Expresscard slots in current notebooks are limited in bandwidth.

As these "whitebook" notebooks increase in number and popularity, I hope their price can decrease as well. It is fantastic to have a mobile gaming notebook to take around anywhere, but it is depressing to see I have to pay at least twice the price than a desktop and still have weaker specifications.

 

The most important point is that a laptop that uses the equivalent components of a desktop costs a lot more. The reason is because of all the R&D money that goes into designing the laptop such that it doesn't melt after using the machine for 5 min
This is the same reason why Shuttle PC are so expensive. They're desktops, but really small one.

PS: On a related note, I just build a PC as powerful as yours and cram all the components into a Shuttle case. It's portable enough for me to carry around, and still cheaper than a full blown gaming laptop.
Core i7 920, GTX 285, 6GB triple channel RAM, 1TB HDD, etc...

 

Do you know the dimensions of your Shuttle case?

An external GPU in an enclosure or dock would be fine for me and give the notebook less weight, thickness, less heat, and more battery life. And when I need to, I can plug in an external GPU. I want to see notebooks or at least desktop-replacements be more modular and flexible.

 

Straight from the Shuttle website, as I never actually measure it:
325(L) x 208(W) x 189(H) mm

The problem with external GPU is that the PCI-E connector that most GPU uses is too fast compared to most connector available to a typical laptop. So the GPU is not used to its full potential as an external module.

 

Yes I know, I guess we will have to wait for the Expresscard 2.0 standard to come out next year.

Or if someone could make a notebook with a desktop-style PCI-Express connector in the motherboard and create a port to connect an external graphics card to.

For the mobile cards that use MXM connectors, what PCI-E connector do they use compared to those in desktops?

 

Good discussion topic.

The future of notebooks in general is bright. As you noted, the sales trends are showing this. The power gap between notebooks and desktops has decreased but they're still not that even - it's just that power has increased so much on both platforms that we don't notice much of a difference anymore.

The notebook market has definitely received more attention by chip companies. For example, up until the Mobility Radeon 9600 was introduced we got second-rate video cards that couldn't perform worth a damn. While the top technology still goes into desktops, it filters into the notebook market more quickly than ever. Mobile versions of video cards appear mere weeks after the desktop cards' introduction. It used to take a year or longer (and in some cases, still does, but not overall).
Look at other developments:
-SATA is now standard across notebooks and desktops
-MXM in notebooks

I think it only makes sense that development for desktops will not decrease anytime soon. It's cheaper to make a part bigger to start with and then shrink it.

 

I think the main problem with desktop replacement notebooks is cost. A powerful gaming notebook can easily cost $1,000 or above.

For the same amount of money, you can build/buy a very capable desktop with (or add) a very powerful graphics card, that will outperform the notebook, and still have money left over for a cheap netbook. In that scenario, the only thing that is lacking is gaming on-the-go, but unless you frequent LAN parties, that's not really too much of an issue.

One example: I just bought a Dell Studio XPS desktop for my brother, and Dell was running a deal where you can add $100 to that price for a Mini 10v. The SXPS desktop (with a Core i7 processor, 3GB DDR3 RAM, and Logitech wireless gaming keyboard & mouse) costed $748, and with a new PSU, ATI 4870, and case fan, comes out to under $1000. So, the total cost is about $1,200 with tax and free shipping.

If we had went with an AMD quad-core, the total price would likely be under $1000. And if he did not really need mobility, removing the netbook would have been a further cost reduction. For $1000, although it's quite possible to find a capable gaming laptop, the performance still will not match even a cheaper desktop.

So, in short, I think the greatest barrier for the proliferation of desktop replacement notebooks is price, price, price.

 

I don't think notebooks will ever be "as" powerful as desktops. The bigger space will always allow desktop hardware to be pushed even further.

 

And that is why I have shied away from purchasing one. I am going to India in December and a gaming laptop would be a great thing to take along while killing time. But after building my desktop, I feel uneasy paying more for a gaming notebook with a fraction of the performance.

The same high price, price, price was true of ultraportable notebooks less than a year ago. I am amazed now that there are CULV ultraportables available that are not much more expensive than netbooks.

This is due to ultraportable notebooks falling into the mainstream when before, they were reserved for mainly the niche business professional market. One reason is to thank netbooks for this trend. Some loved the small size of netbooks but not their performance or found them too small and so we are seeing a rush of CULV ultraportables now and with that competition and with that, competitive pricing.

I am hoping something similar will happen for desktop-replacement notebooks, something will spur them into the mainstream and thus their prices will fall, more accessories and parts will be made for them. Though this is unlikely since the mainstream audience do not need a notebook that can play games or other demanding tasks, the current notebooks on the market are fine for them.

Gaming notebooks are rare, and parts to upgrade them with such as a mobile graphics card is even rarer. I dream of a future when a notebook can be easily upgraded as a desktop, I can go to a retailer, purchase a GPU and plop it in, either internal or external. I don't mind if it is not a big brand name like a Toshiba or Vaio. I'll be happy if a "whitebook" can do this, if manufacturers like Asus or Sager can do this.

Well, the recent Clevo/Sager D900F has a full desktop Core i7 processor. If I could put a desktop GPU into an external enclosure and hook it up to the notebook with full bandwidth, not the limited Expresscard 2.0 standard, then it pretty much has the true performance of a desktop. I guess I couldn't overclock the CPU to 4.0ghz but even now, I am impressed at the current iteration.

 

actually u can.... .....

 

Desktops won't go away for the sole reason of the institution ideology they hold.
A laptop can be claimed and used by a sole person. In fact, it is almost inevitable that even in a family household that one individual will eventually claim the laptop for their own.

Desktops being larger, less portable and more in place create the sense of collective or environmental ownership, be it in an office environment or in a household.

 

Way to go in mind reader mode :wub:

 

Then there's things like lack of full support like SATA-II being downclocked to near SATA-I speeds so your new SSD's super sequential read/write is basically useless.

The only way we can get a true, customizable laptop with desktop-level components if the industry works towards making one. For example, ATX is a standard made by bunch of companies to develop a common platform. Then you want a cooler, motherboard capable of fitting it, enough space to work for, I think it'll always be a compromise.

 

What does that have to do with overclocking the i7?

 

I think this is very true, especially concerning netbooks. Most consumers just browse and work with word docs. Most consumers don't need the power of desktops.

Laptops have never been able to contend with desktops until Core2 Mobile was released.

I don't think laptops will become thicker/heavier, as gaming laptops have always been about the same size.

I think this is the biggest hurdle, and honestly, I don't ever see this happening. Think about how often the chassis of a laptop changes. Now think how often the ATX tower for desktop changes, NEVER. Also there's mobo changes/socket changes, which requires even desktop users to buy new systems.

Desktops has standards, but most importantly they have space this already cuts down a huge amount of R&D from the manufacturer trying to figure out how to cool the darn thing. This in itself will hold back desktop replacements from taking down desktop computers.

There are external card connections. But I think what holds this back also is the bandwidth required to run desktop cards. PCI 2.0 is much faster. External cards would definitely get rid of heat issues though.

Overall on a mass consumer level I believe laptops will replace desktops, not because laptops will be as powerful as desktops, but because most people just don't need desktop power. Desktops will continue to thrive under those who do video/3d work. I don't think laptops would ever be able to hang under that realm, so in a word, no, I don't think laptops will ever catch up to desktops.

What I think is more intriguing is not how powerful will our laptops be, but how efficient/cool running they will be. We are already seeing this happen with netbooks and core 2 duo CULV processors. There was also talks of cooling through ionizing air without the need of fans.

Imagine in the future where we can have a Core i7, in a thin laptop drawing less power than an Intel Atom and is also being cooled passively by ionizing air. Even more crazy, how about the power of a Core i7 in a cell phone?

To me that is the future.

 

Way to skim the post. Anyways, I was replying in general to the post. If anything, everything is going to be more integrated and smaller with high-end becoming a real niche.

 

Yea the 32 nm CPUs will be much faster then current oneS but with a much lower tdp

sorry I'm on my iPhone .... Those CPUs are the next jump

 

think of a netbook sized and powered device. A 'universal' docking station with more ram, cpu, network, video, etc, etc would be available as ther desktop component.

Both IBM and Dell have sold docking stations that were capable of providing these on-the-fly upgrades, but they cost an arm+leg.

 

Main issues is a industry standard port with the correct bandwidth


Most was their own port to increase their profits ....

Take mxm for example......

Sorry I'm on the iPhone

 

I like desktops for three things:
Cost per Performance
Possibility to be completely silent much simpler
Very flexible in hw, without having to "dongle" everything over usb.

A Quadcore with 4gb ram can be had for 700$ and less right now. Give me a quadcore laptop for that price

 

does it have to be a OEM CPU?

 

It is trying to be done at the moment:
http://forum.notebookreview.com/showthread.php?t=407071

This would certainly extend the life of my 15.4" desktop replacement by many years(gaming wise anyways)

 

well.. for the fun of it, i say no?

 

I sincerely hope not -- if they get any bigger and heavier, one might as well lug around a desktop.

IMO, the desktop-replacements will never be more than a niche product and might even be replaced altogether by notebooks which are currently considered "mainstream" (15-16 inches, 6-7lb) as the latter become more powerful. To some extent this is wishful thinking, but there are a couple of good reasons to believe it.

On the one hand, the big and heavy machines are, by their very nature, not very mobile. Sure, you can take it with you when you travel, but what fraction of the market has the strength to be comfortable carrying a 10lb notebook on a daily basis? And even if you are that strong, the places where I typically want to use my laptop (trains, planes, lecture halls, conference rooms, etc.) simply aren't designed for huge machines -- even my 15.4" one feels a bit cumbersome in some places. And if that wasn't bad enough, the battery life of most of these monstrosities is pretty awful. Basically, the desktop replacements feel most at home on... well, a desk.

On the other hand, if you're going to be mostly using it on a desk, then why not just get a desktop with better performance for half the price? There are some people for whom a desktop-replacement is practical while a desktop is not, but there aren't many of them.

 

You are all ignoring the possibilities of cloud computing here, which have the potential to make ALL computers above basic machines niche products. I don't think we'll see true 100% cloud computing in the next 5 years, and there will always be power users who want/need the power in thier hands (see: niche market), but in a decade or 2, I doubt most people will have any need for more than a glorified dummy terminal. With broadband and wireless already prevalent and city-based wifi and EVDO internet access, the need for actually having the power in your hands is already starting to wane.

And before you protest, we already have services like Pandora and Google's web apps, as well as Flash games on the internet and online email and data storage. There are a few streaming video game services that are around the corner that even claim they can play through the browser. For the average user, this is more than enough.

Here on NBR, we are kind of caught up in this cacoon where we mainly think of power users and lose sight of the larger market to some degree. But really, when the average person can get a netbook for $300, a smartphone for $250, and internet through thier cell carrier for $50-$100/mo, with the afformentioned apps available on the web, there are a sizeable number of people that don't really even need a stand alone machine right now. I would expect this trend to only accellerate.

 

Cloud computing could be an option for the majority of consumers as most don't need that much power, but I'm still skeptic about it.

There are so many hurdles to overcome for something like cloud computing to be mainstream. Probably the biggest one would be our current broadband connections and the privacy level aspect.

I believe the netbook market and the demand for low cost powerful computers are more realistic. Something like cloud computing, I don't see coming to pass anytime soon.

The web apps that you speak of, IMO is honestly about the next gen of web browsing. Instead of using a browser to go to a website like ebay, it would just be an app that you would launch instead. This has already been done for example by Hulu using Hulu Desktop. That web app was created using Adobe Air.

 

Everytime I think about upgrading or opening the laptop I'm thinking something like: okay I need a magnifying glass, a pair of tweezers, a set of jewelers screwdrivers and a bright light. Please close all windows and doors I don't want a draft to blow off my tiny screws after I removed them for my laptop. Those are hard to find ... scratch that... nowhere to be found if I lose any. Hey you... stop stomping on the wooden floor like that, you make my table shake and my components are running away.

Anyways cell phones sales took over notebook sales and they're catching up with laptop features way faster than the laptop will ever catch up with desktops.

 

I don't know... having just bought a barebones 980NU, then purchased the remaining parts (CPU, RAM, HD, wireless card) off Ebay/Newegg, I really did feel almost like I was building a desktop Yes, I payed more for what the equivelant desktop would be (~$2700 for a QX9300, 4GB RAM, SLI 280s, 120Gb SSD) but I've got a very nice 18.4" screen and I can fold it up and carry it with me (albeit with a lot of shoulder strain!). This will be my gaming machine for quite a long time. I retired my desktop for it. I really do think we're going to see more and more "desktop replacements" as people look to combine functionality with portability.

 

How much was the 120gb SSD?

I don't mind paying a pretty premium for a desktop-replacement over a desktop, but I want to be able to upgrade it almost as easily, if not as easily as a desktop, not becoming 'obsolete' so quickly.

The main things are to upgrade the GPU and processor/motherboard when something new comes about.

I want much more availability of laptops with MXM slots and the MXM cards themselves to facilitate upgrading and/or an external GPU solution where I can use a desktop or mobile GPU and connect it with full bandwidth. I can connect a desktop GPU right now to notebooks but their current Expresscard slot standard is very limited in bandwidth and chokes high-end video cards.

I think a great idea would be if I could upgrade the motherboard, when new processors and chipsets come out. Companies like Asus and Clevo would be making a barebones notebook and making specific motherboards for that line for me to upgrade from the current Montevina platform to the upcoming Calpella platform and beyond, just like Shuttle makes their own motherboards for their barebones desktop PC's. This way, I wouldn't have to purchase an entirely new notebook, good for cost savings, for the environment and for my wallet, I think this idea could catch on!

 

and now combine those two facts into one thought...

Desktop Replacement Cellphones...


and there is only one thing in my mind. those "i'm in the cinema" and similar sketch jokes with the huuuge mobile phone

 

I think the ideal desktop replacement would be something small enough to carry around yet powerful enough to plug into a large monitor at home and still handle what is required, gaming, video encoding, etc. I think there are notebooks out there small enough and powerful enough to meet the needs of most users right now.

As far as making hand held devices powerful enough to render desktops and notebooks obsolete sounds too linear of an extrapolation of past technological advances. There will be a saturation point where technological advances are limited by resource constraints. Technology may not progress into the future in a linear fashion--it may actually regress going forward.

 

Yeah this is the most annoying problem. ATI and Nvidia messing around making all their newer mxm cards with differing cityscapes so they no longer fit many a laptop's GPU heatsink. They did it in the past with the 8600M GT and 3650 you will find those are identical to one another.

They are shooting themselves in the foot as many mxm laptop users realise without extensive modding of a heatsink they will not be able to upgrade! Incredibly irritating!

As for external GPU solution I think many would buy into that in an instant if only the internal LCD were drivable. Currently an external solution will put more clutter on your desk than a desktop once you have bought all the necessary peripherals(screen,keyboard,mouse). May as well purchase a desktop after shelling out all the money for those items.

 

i would buy ANY laptop, where the internal LCD where drivable from some external input.

imagine having to set up a pc for a client, not needing to have an external screen and laptop and keyboard plugged in. instead, you connect your laptop to the pc, set it to external, and see the screen, control mouse and keyboard.

espencially on smaller, 12", 13" portable laptops (or now netbooks), that could be very interesting. sort laptop-as-a-docking-station


and yeah, nvidia and ati don't help anyone releasing new standards to make live easier, and then not following them themselves

 

The future of them, is that they are going to become cheaper and more affordable, but the quality is going to go waaaayyy down.
So you will end up with a laptop which lasts a week.

Best of all the company will not back it up, so you really get what you pay for.

I hope the future brings down Clevo, its rebranders and voodoo for making horrible systems and having next to no customer support

I can also forsee that my homemade laptop will be much faster than anything on the market for years to come

K-TRON

 

Exactly how many Voodoos have you bought? Including the one you decided to give a makeover?

 

Three in total,
One I got for free, the second I traded some laptop memory for, and the third one I bought.

The one which was free was basically dead in every way. I sold it, so its no longer mine
The one I traded memory for doesnt work, but I am in the process of fixing its graphics card (m360)
The one I paid for has been a neverending money pit, so I simply stopped using it after I got it working.

The company doesnt back any of their products, they even tried stiffing me out $110 for shipping the dead laptop to me, even after that was paid for. Yeah, and that was after they lied to my face, and screwed me out of my entire warranty I paid for.

They are a bunch of crooks, and I hope their company goes to the dumps

Buying anything from voodoo and you are sure to get a bad omen

K-TRON