Yes, there is a trend in DRAM prices as they go through their life-cycle, but the variance in prices are determined by far more than that. The prices we pay are based on the long-range predictions and collusion of the handful of manufacturers. We can't really predict the behavior of the manufacturers too well, and we can't predict the future of the DRAM market any better than they can either. Nobody could tell that DDR2 prices would bottom out at the time they did last summer, and then more than double shortly afterward.
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DDR2 bottomed out sooner than expected due to external pressures, it was expected to bottom soon, just not quite that soon. If I remember right a factory was damaged and they decided to not rebuild it for DDR2 but for DDR3. This changed everything, as that factory was meant to stay DDR2 for a while, instead of a slow drawdown of DDR2 production, it slowed to a crawl very quickly. As supplies dried up, prices shot up.
Another problem with DDR2 compared to past changeovers was that demand for DDR2 was and is still relatively high. Never in history have we had such a wide spread of processors and memory being used. Today we have everything from DDR2 Atom systems on up to DDR3 I-7's. Normally once a memory format is stopped, use of it by manufacturers drops off quickly. I think the memory manufacturers underestimated the demand that was and is still there.
All of this made for a perfect storm. If they had not decided to rebuild the factory for DDR3, it would have been repaired and we would have continued on a normal, slow draw down. At present we are not in the process of changing to DDR4 and won't be for a while yet. On top of that DDR3 hasn't taken hold like DDR2, so this sort of situation is a lot less likely. If a factory were to be damaged anytime soon, prices would go up, but not as bad. It took longer to rebuild it for DDR3 than it would have to just repair it for DDR2.
It wasn't unforeseen circumstances that messed with DDR2 so much, it was the timing of those unforeseen circumstances. -
After all, HDs followed that pattern until SSDs came along. Now, the price per GB has dropped dramatically. Likewise, if a new technology arrive it's likely to sink your whole theory.
I'm not saying you're wrong, just that your prediction diminish significantly the further in the future you go. We won't even get into the myriad industry manipulations. -
For virtual machines, Photoshop, video editing, and large CAD or mapping applications, 4GB is not enough. In other words, only pros who rely on their computers for their work may need more than 4GB.
For everyone else, including gamers, 4GB is more than adequate. -
tilleroftheearth Wisdom listens quietly...
Bog,
For 'everyone else', I can agree that its more than they'll ever use.
For gamers specifically, more RAM is beneficial if you're considering how important minimum frame rates can be to the 'feel/response' of the system.
While 4GB may be adequate, that doesn't mean more won't be beneficial. -
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Tsunade_Hime such bacon. wow
You can never go wrong with more RAM barring 32 bit OS. Your wallet might suffer a little.
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At first I was like "why oh why did I buy 8GB?" but now I'm happy I did. I see memory usage of almost 4GB for just desktop usage, and now I can open up other programs and not worry about any lag when switching between them. I can leave everything open and play a game and switch between them effortlessly.
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All I know is apr $90.00 = Happy camper here. 8GB runs nicely............
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I'm not saying wait a year, I'm just saying that there shouldn't be a big rush. Most software doesn't have that big of a footprint. If you want it and can afford it, why not, but don't rush out thinking you really need it, or need to buy it now because pricing concerns (especially based on DDR2) because you don't. Sorry, but that's paranoid thinking.
I have 8 gigs in my desktop (4 in my laptop), I have for well over a year now and yes, I do tax my system. Is it nice? Yeah, but there are better things you can spend your money on.
Edit: If you have Vista 64, yes, get 6-8 gigs, it runs MUCH better, but a better option is to spend your money on Windows7 64bit and get rid of Vista. You will see just as much of a performance gain.
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Tsunade_Hime such bacon. wow
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Those 8GB DDR3<$100 are cheap. I wish I could find me some DDR2 for that price.
Is 4 GB enough ram?
Discussion in 'Hardware Components and Aftermarket Upgrades' started by dustin_broke, Nov 28, 2010.