Lightpeak May Replace USB 3.0 in 2011

Keeping in mind that in PC's this technology won't show up for another generation, which is roughly a year from now in notebooks right? And then the general year it takes after that for it to show up in devices?

Anyway, I'm thinking that maybe this connector is meant to be sort of replace the Expresscard slot and make for a kind of breakout box oriented connection. AMD tried to do this making a central bus connection to an external box or device that you would then stick a desktop GPU into, and sort of connect as a hub when you were stationary (at home/work and whatnot). This makes it replace docking station connectors, ESATA, and Expresscard, while taking up less space than all of these. What Intel may intend is that USB 3 would be for the 3-6 ports of USB that all notebooks have and the LP would be a one connector meant to go either to an external monitor, or to an external box.

This makes some sense because Apple is ALWAYS into selling "additional proprietary gear" and would happily make breakout boxes that you'd be required to buy from Apple, haha. So it also makes sense, then, that Apple would be the first to adopt.

However, unless Intel plans to throw USB 3 and LP into SB laptops as a refresh (soon), this is still a reality for PC's that is a year away. And since once a connector is out, you have that inevitable lag for testing devices to be compatible, the reality is more like 18-24 months before you have any devices to use this connection with. Having it in an Apple machine may shorten this add on time some, but not entirely.

So in the end, I could possibly see one LP and say 3-4 USB 3 ports on a normal notebook in 2012. No more expresscard and possibly very few video outputs. It might come down to having LP and HDMI or LP and DP as the only two (aside from USB) connections on a notebook. We'll see. A lot can change in a year before introduction.

 

Same here. I realized USB 3.0 wasn't important enough for my use, and in the next couple years advanced data transfer via USB 3.0 and Lightpeak will be worked out. I think they'll both coexist just fine.

See the sig

 

I heavily doubt anything replacing USB. It is too wide spread now. I mean, firewire had fast speeds, but how many of us use it. There is a chance if all of the device manufacturers decide to switch.

 

I seem to remember a couple of years of pure pain as peripheral makers botched the first go-round of USB. Lots of lock-ups, blue screens, that sort of thing. Of course, the OS handles hardware misadventure better these days, but it could still be a shaky year or two once the first peripherals come to market.

As in most things, second generations are the ones to bet on. The bugs get fixed, and the specs get polished.

For that matter, I remember when FireWire was going to obsolete USB. There's always something coming that will "kill" the current tech. Of course, a lot of the "current" tech has been around in one form or another for a lot of years.

I'll set my alarm for "When Thunderbolt is truly fiber-optic, and in version 2 for the peripherals". Wake me then. ;-)

 

Since TB supports PCIe, what I want to see is MS and other OS vendors do a much better job of dealing with on the fly enumeration and removal of PCI (and by extension PCIe) devices. Right now support is pitifully and fraught with bluescreens and an inconsistent user experience. This will be a major issue as TB rolls out.

- Tim

 

more likely 2012 than this year i`d say

 

Oh yeah. I can't wait until ThunderBolt 1.2 comes out and I'm sitting here with my ThunderBolt 1.0 port.

But yeah, I think this connection has a better chance of catching on than most other failed connectors and expansion ports. The connection is going to be heavily backed by Intel, which would theoretically mean built-in connections in their next chipset, and also because if nothing else, it's the display output for the laptop/PC.

And yeah, I think the real excitement is going to be when the connection goes Optical, and we will then possibly have what have traditionally always been internal components being able to be added to the outside of the PC.

But yeah. For now, I'm only going to be interested when the port supports USB 3.0, or there is a decent range of LP-based external storage available.

 

Considering that lightpeak/thunderbolt is unlikely to hit PCs much before 2012 according to Intel and USB 3.0 is likely to be integrated with Ivy bridge, I don't think there's a great deal anyone can say about whether or not it certainly will or will not be a success. With Intel backing it, it's got about as much if not better chance than most connections but there's a lot of connections that have gone by the wayside over the years whilst USB has marched on. The Apple/Intel marketing machine must be doing it's job as there's a fair bit of vitriol about the death of USB around.

Most Sandy bridge motherboards support USB 3.0 through an NEC controller chip already and this will give it a year's lead by the time it hits PCs, on PCs, not forgetting the mountain of legacy support for past USB standards.

I'm not sure if I buy the whole we're integrating everything for you by bringing out yet another standard. If in 10 years time I'm looking at a computer that connects everything from speakers, keyboards, monitors, external hard drives and printers to my computer by a single standard port, whether that be wired/wireless/telekinetic/USB/Lightpeak or anything else I will breathe a sigh of relief; where the money is to be made in an undifferentiated product however............

 

Intel Eyes Post-Thunderbolt Interconnect for 2015 aka Thunderbolt's successor.

 

I knew it! There's always....ALWAYS something on the horizon. Here I was thinking I was making a mistake for buying a laptop with USB 3.0....

Mr. Mysterious

 

Nothing uses it yet. I'd feel bad if there was some kind of hardware solution for connecting external video cards.