The two year hypothesis.

I've been toying with the idea of using a laptop for only two years before purchasing a new laptop. I calculated how much I money I'd be willing to put aside on a laptop per year. For example, if I'm willing to put aside $500 per year for a laptop, I could get a $1,000 laptop and use it for two years.

With intel's tick-tock strategy and the rate at which Nvidia is pumping out new graphics cards, a $1,000 laptop two years ago is probably only about 50% as powerful as a $1,000 laptop now. I've been lurking throw these this forum and encounter people who spend a lot of money on a laptop hoping that it will aslt them "4 years" or relatively "through college/highschool." Sure, with this two year strategy, you'll never have the most powerful laptop at any one point in time, but the average amount of computing power you've attained over 4 years will be greater with a 2 year -> 2 year purchase. Am I being ridiculous? What do you guys think?

 

I have to agree. Spend less money and expect your laptop to last less time. The HP I'm on was pretty much top of the line when I bought it (think it cost about $1700), now it's not very useful/valuable (I'll be lucky if I can sell it for $400).

Although I can't see myself purchasing a laptop every 2 years, I can see myself doing so every 2-2.5. As you said, that's probably a much better strategy.

 

Technology advances so fast with DDR4 "Ivy Bridge Processors", USP4 all coming in the next few years LoL. Not a bad idea

 

While the idea of 'average computing power over time' is a nice thought, it doesn't work out that way in the real world for most people.

All O/S's get more resource heavy as time goes on. Same with programs.

Even the internet gets more and more demanding of our systems.

The biggest 'culprit'? Our experience doesn't grow linearly (as the power of systems do on average) - it usually grows exponentially.

When we get to that point where we're on the steep upward 'wall' of the growth chart - your $1,000 notebook every two years will be the worst way to spend your money.

Not only will you be starting off behind the times - but you'll be left mercilessly behind for the next two years too.

Always buy as much cpu/gpu/ram/storage as you can afford - on the latest/best tech/platform available.

In the end, this is the only way you'll be able to use your system for what what you bought it for - for the longest possible time.

Don't buy on a schedule - buy based on need.

 

That's why I buy as new tech is released. Then you got old tech high spec machines that match new tech mid spec machines at half the price.

Plus buying last of stock stuff you will be able to find good reviews and highlight bad machines and avoid any known issues. If you buy new tech they haven't had long term testing so it's unknown playing field!

 

I have been stating my personal purchasing ideals around a theory similar to yours for a long time.

Except mine is based on one year not two because you did not factor in depreciation. I can buy a laptop now and in a year sell it for a good portion of what I paid for it but a 2 year old laptop is both much harder to sell and worth a lot less.

But the other factors stay the same, there is a huge premium associated with having the best tech. A $200 cpu is 3/4th the power of the $1000 one. A $200 video card is 3/4 as good as the $800 one.

So people that spend $2000+ on a laptop this year to get the king but then hold that laptop for the next 2 or 3 years. By the end of that 2 or 3 years that "king" laptop is only going to be about equal to the middle or upper middle ranged laptops available.

So it works out to be wiser and spend the same amount of money over the same amount of time in more even increments instead of all up front.

All the while then you have to factor in wear & tear. Things have a limited lifespan to them. HDDs, CPU, GPU, Fans, LCD Backlight.

If you cycle your laptop every year your keeping new equipment on hand that is much less prone to failure due to age, and you stay ontop of that "tick tock" of tech you were talking about.

This year I made an exception and did not get a new laptop because this year honestly nothing too great came out and last year we had some better than normal releases.

The Asus G73 I got last year is still contending with top models being released now and the equivalent priced models this year are not really featuring any big change in tech or processing power.

 

What I always do is to get the best tech available within my budget and at that time, then I use it for approx 3-3.5 years and then either sell it or salvage it for parts for other needs such as my HTPC or my backup systems.

Another option I tend to use is the future upgrade method. I buy a future ready system with lowest specs that can keep up with my needs and in around 6-7 months I pump in some dollars or so upgrade it.
But that's for my desktop.

For a laptop, the customization options are a lot less and I would prefer the way ViciousXUSMC does it.

 

That is true; I didn't factor in the depreciation idea and the idea of selling the laptop.

Do you think a ~$1500 laptop would have a much better resell proportion after 1 year (for example, 50% of it's original value) as opposed to a $1000 laptop (for example, 30% of it's original value)?

If my above speculation is true, would it then be much more favorable to spend $1,500+ on a laptop/system in hopes of reselling it successfully in a year as opposed to buying a $1,000 system and potentially "loose" more money?

 

This theory only works well for those who have big budgets ($500+/yr) in the first place.

For people who have a more modest computer budget of say $300 per year, they'd be much better off getting a $900 laptop they can use for 3 years rather than buying a new netbook every year.

 

Its all just generalization so you cant put specific numbers on it and you have to be wise with the brand/model you buy in the first place but I think a high-end laptop holds value better because a year later its still in the upper echelon.

The trick is to get bleeding edge and not leading edge where the price is super inflated when you buy it.

The G73 was like $1600 and I could sell it for $1000 in a flash so I would be out of pocket $600 to "lease" a laptop for a year and then get a new one that of course will have all new hardware keeping my stuff new and in shape.

If I only spent $1000 for a mid ranged laptop, it probably would not sell for much, maybe $400-$500 so pretty close to the same $600 net loss really so not as much value preserved as a % of the original value.

But if you got spend $3000 on a M17X decked out, you cant expect to sell it for $2000 a year later, not unless your lucky to hook some other fanboy with more money than sense

So I always buy based on price vs performance and I keep all my stuff in as new condition as well so when it sells the new owner is so happy to basically get a brand new laptop at a significant discount.

The other reason I like to do things the way I do is since I am a product reviewer. Im not a big company that gets laptops sent to me for review and I do not make money off my reviews (I have to lol at the fact my website has been open for a couple of years with a donate button for paypal and not one donation yet) so I have to have stuff to do reviews on by purchasing it. Having one new popular laptop per year to review is good to keep up my review hobby.

 

nice hypothesis, but as others have said it doesnt exactly work out that way in real life.

the biggest factor- in two years time no one will want that middle of the road laptop.
if your sticking to that midrange performance and price level, your better off selling it in a year or less or you wont find any buyers for your laptop.

 

Lol...
The transition from C2Q to i7 quads (of previous generation - right before SB) yielded virtually little to no improvements in performance.

I find it a bit naive of those who think technology 'advances quickly', especially when every 2 years we are presented with techs invented some time ago and could be effectively called 'revisions'.

In terms of buying laptops every 2 years...
Why?
That seriously depends on one's needs and uses, and even if you are using a 3d program such as 3sd Max like me, I would be content with using my current setup for an extra year or so before buying a new laptop (and I've had my laptop for what... 2 and a half years).

If you are bent on playing the latest games for some time to come... then that might be a different category, however, realistically speaking, even high end discrete gpu's of 2 years ago are still capable running current games with decent settings (let's not forget on how much game optimization comes into focus here either and what types of games a person plays).

If you have the money and want to have bragging rights, then sure, go right ahead, be a good little consumer and spend as much as possible for little gain.

I don't see it viable to spend $2000 on a laptop for nothing but a 50% increase in performance.
I'd rather wait to spend such money on a laptop that offers at least 100% performance increase along with a high-end gpu.
Such a laptop can easily last me 4 to 5 years.
Heck if a mid-range laptop satisfies my needs for at least 3 years, a high end one would be able to push it up to 4 or 5 years.

That way, you will see a much higher performance gain for example by jumping from what you had earlier.
Shelling out big cash for incremental improvements is not my thing.

 

windows has been getting lighter though :/ is linux actually getting more bloated? actually, that question doesn't make much sense lol

 

Are you in the US? At one point in the past month you could have purchased that Dell 20" monster laptop with an AMD quad core and ATi graphics for approx $500- from OfficeMax and Staples.

That same $500 would have bought any number of i5/15" machines or i3/17" machines.

It's worth cruising the on-line ads for brick and mortar companies/stores from time to time.

 

And this is exactly why you buy as much compute power as you can afford - (after properly testing for your usage scenario, of course):

See:
http://forum.notebookreview.com/7598454-post38.html


When the instructions above become as common/useful and integrated as SNB's transcoding engine is right now, you can bet that software and O/S's will become much more resource hungry on any current build we can build/buy now.

But, if your compute needs are time sensitive (meaning: the faster, the easier/better/more money you're making), then you are still going to need as fast a system (now) as you can afford.

When Haswell ships - test, confirm and purchase again (taking any residual value you can realize from your current system(s) into consideration) at the highest level possible. You just don't know when a game changer like that will come along again (and even if you did - you still need something, now).

 

with external GPU's on the horizon, i think a lot of people will be able to keep their notebooks longer. the GPU is the one that runs out of breath the fastest as time progresses, not so much CPU (alienware m14x is a prime example of how the CPU is not the biggest thing) and stick an SSD into the laptop you have a system on which all you have to do is upgrade the GPU every few years...instead of the whole laptop.

 

we already have external GPUs in the form of the Matrox 'ToGo' series.

And don't forget about the DIY vdock.

 

I buy a laptop expecting to use it for about 5-6 years. I can upgrade things like the RAM/HDD partway through.

 

my laptop bought 2 years ago and was adrealy selling for 1 year is still kicking today i have yet to find a single game i cannot just install and set to max
and it was a 2600$ laptop i still hope it to last me one or two years

 

this stuff is still either not mainstream or ridiculously priced. once we start getting external gpu's from a variety of OEM's to connect via thunderbolt we'll see the real action

 

You should probably research both the history and price of the Matrox offerings.........

As far as 'mainstream' goes, what you personally wish for may not be what sells.

 

This type of "hypothesis" holds true for gaming laptops primarily. If you want to game, you gotta pay. But for basic use stuff, pretty much any $500-$800 standard laptop should easily last you 3-4 years. I had a Sony Vaio that lasted 7. Just bought a new battery for it, and had to throw in a wi-fi card to get me another two or so years out of it.

But for gaming, I see max two years of useful life usually. If I don't sell my Sager, then I'm hoping for three but investing another $500 in it most likely with faster CPU and GPU after 18-24 months.

 

actualy for gaming laptop it depends much on the console cycle i don't expect to be forced out of my curent laptop until a new generation of consoles come out

 

Not really true, because that would mean games released in 2006 and 2007 have same requirements as those released today that are also on console.

 

This is exactly why I titled this thread with "hypothesis." I had a thought that I wanted to test and all these replies have been very helpful in pointing out aspects that I did not consider. I'm new to this forum, but I'm glad I've come upon this. There's definitely a great wealth and diversity of knowledge here.

 

Thunderbolt or no Thunderbolt, external GPUs will never be mainstream until they find some way to feed the video signal back into the laptop LCD. After all, people get laptops for portability and having to carry around an external monitor largely negates that benefit.

 

I agree completely. +rep

Mr. Mysterious

 

If you are going to buy a laptop for gaming, then you should pay for the gpu, and worry if the next gen of games increase the power needed. If your buying a lappy for work, then the cpu is more important. There is a big distinction. I bought mine for work, and bought an upgraded cpu, and a got a better gpu because the deal was right. And because I do photo and video editing. I fully expect that this will last me for at least 3 years, and possibly more, with the knowledge that it is our expectations that change.

If I had this laptop 6 years ago, I would have been completely amazed at how fast I can get my work done. I have been doing the same work for well over 12 years, but as happy as I was 12 years ago, that laptop would disappoint me. That is my perception and expectations.

I do have several laptops that range from new to 6 years old. When I am ready for a new one, I upgrade whatever is needed (if anything) and hand it down to one of my kids. If you are buying a laptop for leading edge tech, you will always be disappointed. If you are buying for work/performance, then you will find that tech doesn't actually change as fast as you think, (ie. in respect to how productive you can be with say, the SB laptop. It will give you a lot of time to be productive before it really becomes obsolete). Too many of us tend to want to have the latest, greatest, and without it we feel we are behind.

 

I get a laptop and then upgrade it,,Like CPU,Ram, and Drive to keep it moving along,,technology changes so quickly,,that buying on the cutting edge of it one is bound to get cut,you buy something at release price and 6 mos later the price is cut way down, further one needs to factor in the operating system,,,for instance win 7 does not support usb 3 natively which causes many problems for large backup senarios and has been the topic of much conversations.

Vista, Win XP no native support for SSD's,,ect,,technology that runs faster than the operating system can cause a lot of headaches....

Many persons jumped into the ssd's before trim was available and ended up with a bricked drive.

Technology and the operating system most go hand and hand and work together, otherwise,,theres headaches on top of headaches.

As too buying a new laptop timetable,, I buy when I have gotten my moneys worth out of the old one,,,lol.

Cheers
3Fees

 

I think PC gaming is a really expensive
Hobby. I will be buying my new laptop next year for Guild Wars 2 and Diablo 3 and SC2 and keep it for 4 years. Their replayability can last 3 or more years with all the expansions. That average out about $600/year. That's why i game on console as alternative. Cheaper + more variety + no need to upgrade every year. Eye candy are attractive but with the $ i saved, they have better use such as motorcycle (try new things in your life beside gaming ! ) and vacation with gf / friends / family

 

Yep, that's why I have a PS3.

Mr. Mysterious

 

The OP's hypothesis assumes a certain level of computing power is consistently needed by the user. Many of the users on NBR are enthusiasts or gamers, and as such they have a lower tolerance for compromised performance in their respective applications, which tend to be fairly complex; gaming, media manipulation, CAD, virtual machines, etc. As a result, they upgrade their hardware on a more frequent basis than the actual majority of laptop users.

If the hypothesis is correct, it applies only to a minority of power users in the computer community.

 

the computer does a hell of alot more than play games.

you may not necessarily use the rest of the functionality, but you can't just deny its existence.

 

1) There are no such things as "things beside gaming."

2) No gf/friends because of gaming.

...
jokes
...

Concerning the expansions, however, after 4 years worth of expansions, you won't be able to run the same titled game at the same settings. The game companies would have made enough improvements to the game that you'd have to compromise your graphics settings at the end of those 4 years. Take WoW as a case example:
A computer that could run vanilla on ultra back in the day can not run Cataclysm on high.

A few of the posts above addressed the scope of this hypothesis. I do agree that power users / gamers will feel a much higher impact to their respective uses. However, even with the "average user," the user will most likely not be running the same programs across those four years. If they upgrade their OS or programs to more demanding programs, they're productivity may decrease due to the increase in time spent waiting for the computer to load/process.

 

i thought the upcoming sony Z used an external card that could drive the notebook LCD?

 

yes, but that is a 2000 bucks laptop

I would really like that sonnet launched their egpu via thunderbolt, its too late already, and I really want one

for me its basically the ultrabook concept, while mobile give me good attery life, while in my house, give me something to distract me

 

That's 1 laptop out of hundreds of models being sold today, and an extremely niche one at that. The day every garden variety $500 Acer/HP/Toshiba notebook sitting on Best Buy's shelves support this is the day external graphics has a chance of becoming mainstream.

 

totally agree, only an enthusiast would think of upgrading his 1000plus usd laptop in 2 years.
most people, even those who consider themselves techies but fall short of being true enthusiasts, do not need the computing nor graphical power. for these people a ram or hdd/ssd upgrade drastically lengthens the longevity of their laptop. most non-enthusiast laptop owners i know will hold on to their laptops for 5 years or more.

 

I bought my ThinkPad in August 2008 and I have its fan changed after one year so it's still going strong and I am planning to keep it as long as it lasts. My important files are all on Dropbox in case my it fails.

 

Spending more than $1000 on a laptop depends on your usage. If you use your computer only for watching HD video or Facebook then you have to be crazy to spend over $1000. If you are doing relatively high gaming then you only need to spend $1700 for a system with an i7 2630 and a 560m/6970m. Spending over $2000 on laptop simply for gaming is pointless.

Like other users my $4200 Alienware m18x does more than just gaming. It runs all the latest versions of Inventor, AutoCAD and CATIA with zero problems. Hell my m18x puts most workstation desktops to shame. But as you could imagine, the price is astronomical.

But buying certain components can lead to longer life spans. Take for example the m17x r2. Hell I hate Alienware and I still couldn't find a fault when I saw what a 920xm with 5870m xfire could do. Heavily overclocked, it nearly hits the same 3dmark11 scores as an m18x stock.

It comes down to product life time. Cheap $1000 laptops aren't able to be overclocked to reach the next level that their new models reach a year later. If you are smart you can find the longest lasting components but you may have to pay a premium for them.

 

I think that in the past that hypothesis did not hold up very well. Back then of course, PCs did not cater to consoles as much, right?

But now it seems like, the past couple of years and up to now, it's like some dark new age of pc gaming. We've got Steam integrated (somewhat) on PS3, Crysis 2, the sequel to one of the biggest PC games of all time, ended up being completely DX9 - Crysis 1 or Warhead is more intense in some areas on your PC than Crysis 2! And most recently, Bethesda said they were developing Skyrim with console gaming as a priority...

Seems like for every BF3 that comes along, 3 more high profile releases are going to run on DX9 so that everyone can run it.

 

you missed my point, my point was that it will become mainstream in future. and in the computing world, 2-3 years is "the future". The 500 best buy notebooks will eventually have it. and its not going to be in 10 years time, its going to be a lot sooner than that

 

There are 3 categories of notebook buyers:
"normal" people: they make up for the 95% of the users...for them even a 500€ CULV will last 4 years...they will not buy a computer every 2 years.
"enthusiasts", who like to use their notebooks for serious gaming now and then...but use it most of the time for multimedia...for this task most high-end multimedia machines last 3-4 years...but they cost 1200-1500€
The problem with buying a 700€ notebook every 2 years, is that 700€ notebooks have several very crappy components, like very very low quality screens or bad keyboards...so thats not relay an option.
"gamers"...for them nothing is too fast and price is secondary...they buy when they feel that the new one is faster...and will not wait 2 years...