When will Notebooks Replace Desktops?

Hey, I was pondering this the other day, and I was wondering when you guys think notebooks will completely replace desktops (except in special circumstances), if at all. I believe that in 5 years this will happen. What do you guys think?

 

I say never, because there comes a point when a notebook is just too big to carry, so you'll still need desktops if you want a big screen
Yes, I know you could get an external monitor, but that's not the point I'm trying to make....lol....I just think that desktops can't be replaced

 

NO NO NO!

How many freaking times do we have to have this discussion on these boards?

 

Desktops are currently cheaper than notebooks, but the ratio of notebook sales to desktop sales is increasing. I would imagine that on average, notebooks are replaced more frequently than desktops. These two points go hand-in-hand as a shorted lifespan results in higher sales.

As the sales increase, so the price per performance unit decreases more than desktops. Soon there will be a point when the number of notebooks being manufactured will decrease the cost drastically and eventually below the price of desktops.

The problem is, how does one define a desktop? What happens if a manufacturer comes out with a notebook without a monitor/keyboard/mouse/speakers/etc, puts that in a mini "desktop-like" case and calls it a desktop? Is that still a notebook or is it a desktop?

I personally think that the heading should be towards one box per household and then weak workstations that use the processing power of the main box. Almost like thin clients, but still give the workstation a small amount of juice so that it can stand alone for small processes.

 

They're not really replacing desktops if desktops are still used in "special circumstances".

So I say never. Desktops have their advantages, and a notebook is never going to be able to match those. So in cases where these advantages are needed ("in special circumstances"), desktops aren't going away.

If you ask when notebooks become standard for most people, I'd say a year or two ago. Your average computer user today either has a notebook, or would prefer to replace their desktop with one.

 

This has so been discussed. The answer is NEVAR! You can't get me to trade in my big, sexy desktop for a laptop. Both have their uses and I love having both. But it'll be a sad day when all I feel the need for is a laptop.

 

I know in my mind there is no longer any reason for me to get a desktop. If I need a better screen, I'll just hook up an external monitor.

 

good point jalf!

most of my friend wants to buy laptop nowdays instead of a desktop, or at least have both.

 

There simply isn't a cost effective method yet, of cooling desktop power, in a notebook package, and still retain the qualities of a notebook. If there ever is a breakthrough cooling technology, maybe, but I doubt desktops will ever really go extinct. Keep in mind, that this community is a niche, a rapidly growing one, but still one at that. The general public has no need for a laptop, and until they do, desktops are going to be much more economical and better decisions for most people.

 

You forgot an option; Already has!

Well, for some people that simply don't need the flexiblity, power or the space requirements of the Desktop.

 

Someday in the future. But till then, desktop still rocks the gaming world.

 

I understand the question as "when notebooks will become the better choice", that is they will sell more. For me, this has already happened.

 

It really will never happen. they are more expensive. The upgrade options are more limited and much more expensive.
You're limited by things such as hard drive space and speed (can't use raid in most laptops and can't put Raptors in them either).
You also won't get the performance out of a notebook that you can from a desktop.

 

Me too, we have several lptops ane one Desktop which we are getting rid of and just using the monitor.

 

I don't think laptops will ever completely replace notebooks, unless notebooks became just as easy and simple to upgrade as desktops. Until, then forget about the idea of notebooks replacing desktops. Part of the problem is if manufacturers made upgradeability possible (oh how I wish my notebook used an MXM GFX module), then they wouldn't be making you buy a whole new machine. That's part of the reason why notebooks are not easy to upgrade. However, a smart person could toy around with their machine and make it better in all areas, but that takes skill and know how.

 

Notebooks have already replaced desktops in many places--my home is one of them.

 

desktops will never go away busines's need them, and no just because u see notebooks advertised on tv for business doesnt mean every company is switching to them, one example for desktops in a work place would be telemarketing or tech support, i think as the consumer leans towards notebooks maybe desktops will be mainly for companies. just my two cents.

 

I recall in the 2004 holiday season browsing sonystyle.com and there being at least a dozen or so desktop options available (not including CTO models). Currently, there are a meager two models to choose from when it comes to VAIO Desktops... Also, in this year's Sony computer magazine they send out every year, there are absolutely no desktops shown or advertised. It's nothing but VAIO notebooks and notebook accessories.

 

well with the consumers buying notebooks more and more there will no doubt be more improvements towards the notebooks, hopefully making them more upgradable that would be nice.

 

This topic has been discussed a number of times already here.

Desktops will never be replaced by notebooks. Desktops will always have the performance/price advantage over notebooks. Notebooks are always trailing desktop in performance because they slap some serious power consumption, size, and thermal restraints on their full-sized counterparts.

Also, not everybody is willing to pay the premium for a mobile system when a lower-priced desktop will suffice. Especially when a cheaper desktop outperforms a more expensive mobile computer.

 

i guess what he meant to say is; when will notebook becomes the standard computer.
i guess the answer is.... it already has. even though some people don't need the mobility of the notebook, and the premium that comes with it; we'll see more and more hybrid notebook/desktop a la imac. with the introduction of intel coreduo, the gap that dirrentiate between desktop and notebook is closer than ever.

 

I think that the question if asked as "when will notebooks outsell desktops" - that has already happened, I believe.

"When will notebooks completely replace desktops?" Not for a long time, because most of the world still uses Desktops. They are cheaper and easy to fix and last a long time.

In the Western world, I think that some of the complaints about notebooks include cramped keyboards, small screens, poor graphics, and very low hard drive capacity. When these and other aspects are improved, then Desktops will have a hard time competing.

In the office, however, I think because of theft, desktops will be around for a LONG time.

 

Speaking from personal experience and not including hardcore computer geeks etc. most of my friends have laptops. Ok so a lot of them are girls but still. It seems wireless internet and cheaper prices have made laptops the more convenient choice.

I can see them slowly replacing desktop pcs around the house, but never entrely, there will always be geeks, gamers, workstations and servers etc.

 

Thats the same as asking if portable DVD players will ever replace big screen TV's. Its never gonna happen because there is only so much that you can fit into a portable machine. For example, the most hard drive space that you can fit into a laptop is 200 GB. and there are some desktops out there that have 2,000 GB. of storage. I don't know how you'd fit that into a laptop.

 

Give it 10 years, and 2 TB will be possible on a laptop.

 

Yeah, but then even more will be available on a desktop... who knows what kinds of things we'll be storing on our computers in ten years.

 

True, but 120 GB of space will do my fine for now. However, I might want to upgrade to a 7200 RPM HDD when I upgrade the RAM on this thing.

 

I think there will come to a point where "notebooks" will replace desktops but not in the typical sense. I think they will take a notebook and remove the monitor and speakers. Then you will end up with basically a keyboard that has all of your hardware in it. The monitor would be akin to the lg 1970hr monitor which has a stand that can fold into the back of the monitor. The speakers could be something that can be tucked into the case. I think the big problem will be upgradability. It will come eventually but not for at least 15 years or more when large desktop units are phased out in favor of the smaller form factor in laptops.

 

Notebooks are more popular. But if you notice, desktops are ALWAYS faster. As long as someone wants/needs something faster, they'll need a desktop. I like having my desktop... I can connect to my computer at home to access data (I can't carry 3/4ths of a terabyte in RAID-5 around with me), it's got a larger display and a more comfortable keyboard. But it's not mobile, so I have my notebook to bring my stuff around with me, play games with friends, etc. Each has a purpose, and neither will supplant the other any time soon. I run out of space regularly on my notebook, especially with game disc images on the hard drive.

 

never - I think that some people will always go for a desktop, they like the big screen and seperate mice and keyboards. If you mean the power of the notebook, well if your willing to pay enough, notebooks already have.

 

Very shortly the laptop will morph into a hybrid type unit. A platform that is the keboard section as in notebooks, with monitor and battery seperate options.
For $300 you have a complete computer except monitor which we all have anyways it seems. That's my theory.

 

So maybe the XPS M2010 is the beginning of this transformation?

 

At the very least businesses will always cherish desktops for their security, lower price and upgradability, as well as functionality when it comes to using servers. Let's face it, a 25 pound tower with wires and all would not make for an easy getaway!

As a private consumer, though, I'd love to use only laptops around a wireless network. What I'm going to do instead is hook up a desktop at home with a huge HDD to a wireless-n router and set it up as a round-the-clock server for personal use - then I will use a laptop to access a personal bank of information. Just the thought is exciting

 

The laws of thermodynamics will likely prevent laptops from ever totally replacing desktops. Satisfying Moore's Law inevitably results in increasing amounts of heat being generated, which a desktop sized computer will always be able to dispel of much more efficiently and quietly than a laptop. Couple the continuous drive for greater and greater speed with the fact that many people don't need their computer to be portable (and the decreasing price of computers allowing households to own both desktops AND laptops) and I think that will create a necessity for desktops (or at least the concept of large stationary computers in whatever shape or form be they PS10 or XBOX11) to be around for a long time.

I think the key trend is not larger computers disappearing, rather that we are seeing an increase in the range of computer sizes available. It used to be that computers were constrained to room-sized behemoths but they gradually shrunk down to desktop size, then laptop size, and now we are getting MicroPC size. The next step will be embedded computers in all sorts of things from clothing to credit cards to MI2 Tom Cruise style sunglasses. And then the next logical step, the holy grail, is nanocomputers and nanorobots that will have the potential to revolutionize human existence, at least according to the futurists and sci-fi authors.

 

If I define my computer by the screen, then never.. I don't see LCDs matchng up to my 19" CRT, or, for that matter, any CRT, anytime in the near future..
Also, Performancewise, however much the performance of a portable advances, it's always going to lag that of a non-portable. Heat dissipation is one of the most important factor here.
Even if we assume, for a moment, that miraculously, notebook manufacturers somehow get over that hurdle, the question of affordability will always remain. For the same price, a desktop will perform atleast twice as well as a notebook. So, for the average user, who values performance over portability, there will always be the desktop.
Of course, there are other uses, and forms, in which the destops will remain, limited only by our imagination.

 

thats a Never.
Like Jalf pointed out, it will become more of a standard for users to have.

 

I think there will be a point where desktops will be only needed in companies. But then, as they are now, one desktop per person will be a waste of resources, so what I see coming is one Tower per 4-5 users. That will be the "desktop" of the future, but desktops as we know them now, will disappear in 5-10 years. Mark my words.

 

Where will all the Media Centers go

 

Monitors? nowadays there are cellphones that can project the screen in a wall, and there will also be wireless monitors. And about heat dissipation, performance, etc. Laptops will catch up soon. Space, heat? do not forget quantum computers.

 

I'd guess it will pretty much always be a constant that it will be easier to generate big computing power in something large than in something small. So maintaining my standards for a portable laptop will also likely require a larger, less portable unit, whether it is some form of large hybrid laptop ( like that giant Dell) or a traditional desktop.

Plus at the moment at least you can't just decide to go throw a second (or third, or 4th) hard drive in most laptops. So you end up with large numbers of external devices and everything can be even more of a pain to move than a tower if needed.

 

I myself don't think notebooks will ever replace desktops.

Like it's been said here, desktops can store more, go faster, cool more efficiently, etc, than notebooks.

 

As long as there is Hardcore gaming there will be Desktops.
Not to mention having a small server on a notebook is just plain werid.

I use a 32inch LCD screen for my desktop. It's freakin HUGE
Who in their right mind would carry a 32inch notebook? LOL
The highest notebook size I ever seen was 21inch by acer.

And like many previous posts mentioned. Less heat and more specs. And at less of a price. Also more customizable too.

 

Notebooks would never replace notebooks. Movie studios, mainframes, and such require the fastest performance possible in order to remain cutting-edge, and guess what? The bigger the chassis, the easier to develop and manufacture for (not to mention the more cost effective). Meaning, desktop technology would always remain on top.


Having said that, there is one exception:

The average consumer, being ones who do not game, can easily get a laptop for $600 USD; same price or even cheaper than the equivelant desktop. For that particular market, laptops have already replaced desktops.


So you see, it all depends.

 

notebook can never be powerful as desktop and gamers and other computer users will always need that power. games are starting to demand alot of and video cards and notebooks can never achieve as fast as desktop.

 

You have to realize that no matter how powerful notebooks get, desktops are always going to be 1 step ahead. True, a notebook's will exceed the need of an average user (they already have), but there will always be a group of professionals who will need more power. It’s like LCD and CRT. Hardly anyone uses CRT monitors anymore, but there are those professionals who need their advantages. Desktop will become rarer, but they become extinct.

 

I don't think this will ever happen. IMHO, they serve two different functions, and each one has its strengths and weaknesses.

 

Not yet but I mainly use my notebook except gaming.

 

Notebooks could possibly replace normal consumer desktops if they become more modular in design for better ability in upgrading. Problem is that the laptop OEMs know that such an idea means less notebooks will be sold because owners could upgrade their machines instead of dropping the money for a whole new system. Hopefully though, I'm really excited at the prospects of more laptops being equiped with MXM (Nvidia) or AXIOM (ATi) graphics modules, especially as mobile DX10 GPUs roll around.

The whole notebook replace desktop deal is kind of like the "will consoles replace PCs for gaming" arguement, where the likelihood of such an idea isn't very high. Notebooks have to far a ways to go in becoming more upgradeable. A smart person could actually make significant upgrades with the right knowledge, the right machine and right suppliers for parts. If I really wanted I could equipe my laptop with a Turion x2 TL-64, however, finding a supplier who would sell to a consumer like me would be somewhat difficult. But then again, all the TL-64 and TL-56 are the same exact chip, with a higher clock speed in the TL-64.

 

In my household we have one HTPC and three notebooks, HTPC's wont ever really be replaced by notebooks but at the same time their not a true desktop.

 

notebooks will never replace desktops for the simple matter of the fact that desktops are way more customizable and way cheaper to upgrade.