Will we see hard drive less notebooks in 3 years ?

I am seeing 4GB flash memory chips for 100$ now. So for 12 GB its 300$. Assume that technology can double flash capacity, keeping price constant, and we get 24 GB for 300$ in 3 years.
Thats enough for an OS, reasonable data space.
Will we see such a laptop in 3 years ? Perhaps with an external/removable HDD ?


Is flash memory faster ? How does it compare to RAM speed ?

 

I highly doubt flash memory is going to replace hard drives. There's an article MaximunPC did in this month's issue on this subject. Flash drives tend to read/write quicker than hard drives if the file in question is small. Otherwise, if it's a big file, hard drives are faster.

However, the article was on portable flash drives...I would assume notebook hard drives are faster?

Flash memory will almost certaintly never reach the same storage capacity as a hard drive though. Seagate's got a 750mb perpendicular drive out! Biggest flash drive I've seen? 16GB for like $800.

 

very good thought. Solid State Disks are still very primitive, and there is still a very long way to go. At the moment, I assume not.

SSD's seem to be very expensive, the cheapest ones of resonbale storage amounts cashing in at a hefty $000.

The transfer between HDD and SSD will be gradual I think as laptop manafacturers will struggle to keep the notebook prices down. SSD's will only be used in business style notebooks to begin with, such as IBM thinkpads. Already, I think it was the Samsung Q30, a revolutionary SSD notebook. That was very expensive and I believe it was over $3500.

The speed advantages are significant. Data transfter rates are a lot faster than HDD transfer rates.

Unless mass production of these SSD drives start, the prices will not drop, and the that may be around 5 years.

I agree with who8, there have not been many improvements in the basic technology in SSD. Seagate is experimenting with swappable 120GB hdd that can be used in a variety of devices such as in car stereos and of course PC's. The Hard Drive company called Spintronics claim that they can make a disk drive by 2011 that can have 1.2 perabytes of storage. Apparently, Micheal Thomas claims that he can synchronise the spinning of electrons rather than letting them spin randomly.

http://www.nanotech-now.com/spintronics.htm

 

I read not too long ago that PQI had created a 64GB SSD using Samsung's NAND technology (see link below). I personally believe that flash drives will replace HDD one day. Actually, I see it happening within the next five to ten years if they can bring the cost down. Sony was even throwing the idea around of putting a 4GB NAND module ona redesigned PSP, but I don't think that's going to happen.

64GB Notebook Flash Drive

 

Thats fine, but we dont really need 20GB+ HDDs for work, especially in the business world.
An optimal solution in that case is to have an external or removable HDD with large data capacity for "fun stuff", and a core flash memory based 20GB memory on which the OS, main programs, and important data reside. It will also prolong the battery life.

Anyone know the difference between flash memory and RAM ?

 

I think it will take a little longer than three years but flash drives should be the next form of storage. As new technology develops the drives will become larger and faster. I am really looking forward to the day when flash hard drives are common place.
Tim

 

They're already out, and they're hella expensive. In three years, a lot more will come out, and at a much better price. Doesn't mean that the HDD will die, but they will begin to be replaced.

 

I guess transfer rates of Flash Drives will be similar to those of RAM, as they are both SSD devices. I'm not too sure about that though....

 

I saw a 28gb SSD for $20300 As if anyone would pay that.

 

Hard drive less mayb not, we ll see hybrids thou. Like 20gb for ur OS, and an additional perpendicular 250gb drive for ur normal day storage.

 

We don't have to wait 3 years Such laptop is already available (only in Korea for now ): http://www.samsung.com/PressCenter/PressRelease/PressRelease.asp?seq=20060523_0000257520

SSD is the future, I expect such laptops available in US in 1 year.

 

SSDs are still in their early stages right now, however, I can see them easily replacing notebook HDs we have today. SSDs use much less power than a conventional HD, as they have no moving parts, and access data much faster as well. In addition, they are much smaller than today's drives, allowing for more space for other hardware components (more powerful graphics card, CPU, etc.). SSDs lower power consumption will also allow other components in notebooks to use more power, such as the CPU/GPU, or save it to conserve battery life. The only factor that's keeping them from hitting the mass market is price. However, I can see SSDs hitting the mass market in 2-3 years after price has been reduced and more space is offered.

 

YOu can actually get a SSD very easily!.. and not for much... depending on the speed and capacity.
Check my thread, I had a technical question about CF adapters and SSDs

http://forum.notebookreview.com/showthread.php?p=1448145#post1448145