blu-ray vs. DVD - what's the future for games?

The CD was probably the last major physical medium to deliver audio content (how many people use SACD or DVD-A?). While markets for audio distributed via physical media will likely remain to exist for a long time, they likely will not grow nearly as fast as digital means of distribution. By the time most people desire higher quality (or more channels) than 16bit 44.1kHz stereo, audio compression mechanisms and network bandwidth will be advanced enough to deliver it digitally.

I think there will be similar developments for videos and for computer games. Yeah, it might take a generation longer for those media since they tend to take up more storage space. Will Blu-ray see as widespread adoption as DVD? Perhaps, idk. But I foresee digital distribution as the primary means of video and games content delivery in the not-too-distant future. It simply will not be much longer before most people have the bandwidth to download stuff as a highly convenient means to obtain a locally stored copy.

Trying to think a little farther ahead? I believe both producers and consumers of digital media have a lot to gain from cloud-based content delivery.

 

I feel like that the SD Cards (Mini, Micro,HDC, and others) will be used. I have read in other places that we will probably be seeing 1TB SD cards within 5 years. Discs are very much of an inconvenience to carry around and I have found them a lot longer to install a program from. I have found that installing a digital copy form my external (Disc Image) is a whole lot quicker than from a disc. I can get up to 6 MB/s from a DVD and up to 30MB/s from my 2.5" 250 external. I have not yet tried to install a game off a SD card, but my guess is that it would be the same as my external or maybe more.
SD card slots are on 100% laptops (including ultraportables and netbooks) and if your desktop does not have a SD slot expansion you can get one for about $30. SD slots will never be outdated as such, maybe new revisions, but should be backward compatible. Also the manufacture can choose the amount of memory is needed for each game and can be used on a SD card that has the closest amount.

My idea is that the gaming industry should sell the SD card with the installation files for about $10 (price of printing and SD Card). Then go home and get online to buy the key. Require a one-time online check to make sure that the key is legit and is within the allotted amount of computers (ie: install on say 3 computers).

 

That is a great idea. I always thought they should re-adopt the game cartridge again. I mean publishers spend so much money on DRM software that it would probably be cheaper to make a cartridge. It may cost them more, but then again, it would probably make copying games cost-prohibitive too. But SD cards would be great too.

It may have helped MS initially just to prevent the cost bleed, but BD is the new high capacity optical disc standard. It's like Sony refusing to use Windows in the PlayStation division because Sony didn't make the OS. It's the winner, and here to stay (at least temporarily).

However, using a unique format (say HD-DVD) it would probably keep piracy at bay. Microsoft's volumes could justify a relatively cheap manufacturing process, but since it's a dead technology, an HD-DVD burner would be outrageously expensive.

To be honest I don't know why Sony and/or MS wouldn't do this, even if it was a proprietary format. Sure it might cost them more, but pirating would be greatly degraded. And if pirating costs them over $1 Billion a year as they claim, seems like a small price to pay.

 

Just because it can be cracked doesn't really mean much unless it's widespread. Even the most advanced security systems in the world can be cracked, bypassed or gotten into, yet you don't see the world bank's vault stolen every day do you?

As for the whole "BD" thing, I re-iterate my statement, PC games aren't like console games in terms of their size due to different installation methods so until the time PC games literally require more than 2 DVDs in a widespread manner(currently probably 80% of PC games need only one DVD) then it won't catch on. Blu Ray players in computers aren't even a commodity yet.

 

What about the cost of the software itself? Or do you mean that the gaming industry should sell the SD cards for $10 more than what they currently charge? Considering how much more expensive it would be to produce the games on SD cards than DVDs right now, I'm not sure how well that would go over.

 

Hmm, my posts on PS4 and XBOX 720 driving Blu-ray adoption were deleted.

I will stand by it as a completely logical train of thought, as the disc production will rise by hundreds of millions. It would then seem to be more cost effective for the developer and publisher to print the PC version on the same line, but the roadblock is whether the majority of PC gamers will have upgraded to the BR standard.

There is the possibility that publishers force the move on the PC market, but it all depends on where the 2012 adoption rate is being projected.

 

The price/GB of an SD card is an order of magnitude higher than it is with DVDs or Blu-Rays. It's just not economical because it gives no major advantages over an optical disc.

SD cards are also seriously limited on bandwidth... a Class 6 SDHC card will run at about 6MB/s. That's 1/3 to 1/4 the speed of a spinning external drive.

 

I have been thinking more and more about the SD card thing. Let say EA decides to make a 2011 EA Sports series. Instead of making of making thousands of copies of each game (football, basketball, soccer, hockey, etc) just put them on one SD Card. To "unlock" the particular game that they want to install they type in some sort of code. One code is given for each game and can only be used up to 3 computers. Most homes have some sort of internet service nowadays (wireless or wired), so lets say that someone would write a program that would issue a computer code (computer configuration, ip address, whatever) that would identify that computer alone. You would need to type in the code given to you when you purchased the game online. And you need at least one online check (30 day period).

Itunes and Windows does a great job at this and their tatics could be used. Itunes only allows 5 computers to have one user account and Windows with their activation service. So far no one (besides pre-activiation) has cracked/made a keygen for Itunes/Windows.

As I was saying, you could still sell individual games on DVDs, but sell groups of games on SD Cards.

I was checking around online and you can buy 16GB and 32GB for about $25.

 

And those are tight margins on the SD cards. The seller is making a few bucks at most, as is the manufacturer. Actual cost to manufacture (after licensing) is probably close to $10 or more on a 16GB SDHC card. They can sell you the latest game on DVD for $40, and the DVD itself costs them less than a dollar. They put a game on 4 DVDs (4x4.4GB = 17.6GB) and it costs them less than $4. Itunes codes are validated online, same as with Ubisoft's DRM, and so on. Not to mention SD cards are a very short-term solution. They'll be good for maybe 5-7 years or so until Blu-Ray becomes ubiquitous, and then manufacturers will have 50GB for around a buck a disk.

On top of all that, SDHC is a writable medium! People will accidentally overwrite things, or it'll be even easier for pirates to just distribute a cracking program that unlocks all the games on the card at once, instead of having to distribute full images or whatnot.

There's no good way to make an infinite product like bits of data a scarce one. DRM and other content protection simply prolongs the inevitable. The ONLY way to make money is to add value, not take it away. Give people are reason to get the legitimate copy. Access to developers, input on the next game, access to the forums, online content, who knows what else. Anything that is NOT infinitely replicable like bits are. Trying to take over your customers computers is not the solution, and pisses people off because they realize they're not customers to you, they're just wallets. And it drives people who otherwise would buy your product into the open arms of cracked software that just works without crapping up your system.

 

It was just a thought. I sometimes don't think things through as to be the end result. I guess the reason why I thought of it was because everyone has a SD Card slot of some sort (Micro, Macro, HC, MMC). So why not use it for installing games and get rid of the optical drive (use it to put another HD in). Like I said before, I keep all my games on my external HD (Disc Image). So I was trying to think of alternates that would best utilize the resources that we have, that we know everyone could use and not buy extra peripheral for.

 

That's why we have these message boards. To discuss things with other people who may have information we don't The general idea itself isn't bad. I was just explaining why it unfortunately wouldn't work given current constraints because I've run into many of them before. If SD cards were faster or cheaper things would be different.