Z series: crystal ball anyone?

Hi everyone,

I realize it's way too early to have any info on the new Vaio series potential refresh, since it hasn't even come out yet.

But, since Sony's refresh trends/dates tend to be consistent from year to year, what would you guys guess that the next refresh of the Z line will bring, and when do you think it will happen?

Just to be more specific, I absolutely love this laptop, but there are a few things still missing for me: Esata port, Firewire800 port, more solid audio chipset (some laptops have X-fi) and possibly better graphics (newest Nvidia).

I'd love to have your guesses and speculations about which of these things (or others) the next refresh might fix, before I go ahead and break the piggybank for the current gen.

Thanks in advance.

 

the FZ refeshed like in 3-4 months if i remember correctly..

 

Based on past trends and the fact that Z numbering starts from 500 instead 100 in US, my guess is that it will be either replaced or received major upgrade 5 quarters from now, just in time for 2009 Holiday season.

 

Well its a business laptop, not a gamer laptop, so the graphics isn't going to be improved much, also what does a business man need a bedder audio chipset?

But the ports really could be updated I guess =)

 

I would also like those ports in the Z tdx, there just isn't a perfect laptop out there, the Z is pretty close to it for me, but is lacking a few things I really would have liked, but you have to take the best, there isn't a laptop with everything.

When Sony refreshes their notebooks, they of course will upgrade the processor and chipset when those are released from Intel and also give options for more memory and larger hard drives/solid state drives. Like with the first SZ models with Intel's Napa/Merom platforms, they had Geforce 7400s and were later replaced by Geforce 8400s with Santa Rosa/Penryn platforms, but with little graphical performance increase.

I've never seen Sony add extra ports to refreshes of models.

See this picture of its innards, its amazing Sony managed to fit in what they did! They just cannot add a more powerful videocard in there, just not physically possible.

Those things your asking for, its most likely they will not be implemented, sorry.

 

I would tend to agree ... different procs and drives, maybe a graphics chipset update (doubtful), but you won't see a change in design. That's not Sony's style (no pun intended). Sony tends to update configs, even slightly, about every 3 - 4 months so I would expect the first updates around October or so.

 

The next Z will be only 7 inches wide.

(crystal ball view below)

 

All the Vaio models have a 34mm Expresscard Slot and there are Firewire 800 and ESata adaptors to fit in that slot if that helps.

The ExpressCard slot on a laptop can either connect to the chipset by USB (480 Mbit/s) or PCI Express (2.5 Gbit/s), of course the latter being much faster.

I hear that Sony's Expresscard slots use the former so the slot may perform slowly, I heard its slow at least on the TZ series.

So you still can get ESata and Firewire 800 on the Z by adapters, but they may not perform as well as if the laptop directly had those ports connecting to the chipset. Just a caution, but better than nothing.

 

The host device (aka Computer) must support both USB and PCI Express standards for the expresscard slot. Expresscard manufacturers (eSATA, Firewire, WUSB, etc.) can choose to build their card around either the USB or PCIx platform.

 

Thanks for all the replies everyone. This all more or less confirms what i was thinking, i just wanted to be sure. So I guess i'll get this generation, since I dont really need a better CPU/hard drive that the next one might offer. As for the graphics, the reason I was interested in a more powerful chip (as well as sound) is because then the Z series would be more than just a business laptop, but an amazing all-in-one, which is very portable to boot.

That would be my dream machine, but as you guys say, we can't have it all...

 

I am expecting the next Z model to be launched to have 2.8Ghz, Bluray and SSD. Maybe available in december/januari.

 

I'd say Jan/Feb. The SZ7 came out in late Jan and the SZ6 was out in July '07. The Z is out Aug '08 so I would think it will be Jan or later.

My guess is that you'll see the typical minor upgrades:

- There'll be no more 64GB SSD, and maybe you'll see 256 SSD RAID on top of 128 GB SSD option.
- Hopefully they'll also have the option for that new 400GB 2.5" Hitachi HDD.
- There'll be the usual incremental Intel bump.
- I doubt there'll be any change in RAM - but there might be a bump to 1066 GHz RAM from 800 to match the FSB.
- I also predict you'll see the silver barrel become black to match the lid
- Some kind of tiny change to the rubber pads or some tolerance somewhere to fix tiny little engineering issues. There were dozens of small changes throughout the SZ1-SZ7 evolution.
- All graphics will stay the same.
- Blu-ray option will be a bit cheaper.
- Blu-ray + SSD config possible.

What I dream will change, is possible, but I doubt will:

- BACKLIT KEYBOARD!!! I think there's no reason why this couldn't be added as the LEDs that illuminate the keys can sit inside each key hollow.
- Ditch the Sprint exclusivity with the WWAN and add a sim card slot like the UK SZ had.
- Bring back the raw (premium) carbon finish, especially the black tint of the TZ
- A premium power pack designed for travelling (like the old stick AC adapter but smaller and flatter) - similar in size to the lenovo X300 one or the TZ one.

For me, having the SZ6, it's hard to justify the change based on specification bumps (I have 200GB 7k2rpm HDD, 2.4 GHz dual, 4GB RAM), so my hopes are for funcitonality additions.

 

About the backlit keyboard, I recently saw a cool substitute for this on a IBM thinkpad T61p - it is a single led on top of the LCD which you can turn on and off. When you turn it on, it subtely illuminates the keys, but uses much less power than having a completely backlit keyboard. I thought that was interesting...

 

As I said, I think sooner. I ordered my SZ90 (SZ1) I believe in March of '06, and by May/June they already were on the 2nd gen (SZ2). 6 months is a long time for SOny not to update anything.

Also remember that it varies a bit by country as to when/if things get updated.

Sony also isn't consistent - for example, the G series is still on G2, but if you go to the Sony Japan site, it says G4 (despite the models saying G2).

 

I hadn't thought about the backlit keyboard and mini power brick, but i agree, they would be great to have. If they could include that, an Esata or FW800 port and cheaper SSD, it'd be the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Aside from these, there are a few more things that I'm curious to see how they will pan out:
- Integration of Wimax (will it be a new chipset or will we be able to swap a chip like intel promised?)
- incremental updates of existing tech: Bluetooth 2.1, USB 3.0, faster Expresscard, etc...
- possibility to expand RAM to 8GB when 4GB modules are available.
- HDMI 1.3 or Displayport, both with full uncompressed HD audio output.

Of course all these are technologies that are not available yet, but are coming pretty soon. So it will be interesting to see which ones Sony will or will not integrate.

Finally, what i think is great about the Z series, is that it's the first time (I think) that a really thin and light laptop has almost no compromises for the use of current technology. of course, bigger/heavier models have better specs, but almost every component is present in the Z, meaning we dont have to chose between performance and size anymore.

That's why I'm eager for Sony to integrate those few missing things, so that the Z would have everything. One can dream, right?

 

Well there isn't really any point in adding 8GB RAM when Vista only lets you use 3.5 out of the 4 GB now.

 

True, but the 64-bit version lets you use any size of memory fully. I've been using that for a year now, and it's faster and more stable than 32-bit. And the drivers have finaly caught up, so there's no reason to chose the 32-bit edition over this one anymore.

 

Yes I want eSATA as well, but it didn't make my list for "possible" for an update because it would require a redesign of the motherboard. FW800, maybe they could replace the existing IEEE1394 with the faster one?? Cheaper SSD: definately and on my list.

WiMax is still is big mystery. An Australian company here deployed a system then dropped it and called the tech a failure.
BT 2.1, yeh maybe
USB 3.0, no chance - you'll be lucky if the spec is even finalised by then as Intel have been dragging their feet
Faster expressed card - I don't know, is there one?
8GB RAM - nah, they won't bother as the 64Bit OS is not offered as in the CTO.
HDMI 1.3: perhaps, Displayport: no way, at least not until you see a Bravia with a Displayport.

 

Thanks for the clarification on these points. Once again, I am completely aware that most (if not all) of these things won't be available on the updated Vaio, since they are all emerging technologies.

Honestly, if Sony could just put an Esata'FW800 port on the Z I'd be happy. I just cringe when I think about transferring all my data through slow USB2.0. Plus, Esata and Firewire800 are both mainstream now, especially Esata. So Sony should definitely use them.

Pretty please, Mr Sony designer?

 

True.

I have a homeserver with a fast TB HDD and a 10Gbps CAT6 network with 10Gbps switch for file transfer. The nice thing about the Vaios is that they have Gigabit ethernet (surprisingly a lot of Dells etc still sport 10/100Mbps). Anyway, I move files around at Gigabit and avoid using the USB for large file moves - perhaps you want to swap out a few things at home to alleviate the problem.

Nonetheless, eSATA is on the 'fantasy' list for me too

 

The best way to gauge the crystal ball is to investigate what the parts manufacturers have on their roadmap.

Intel's roadmap shows that Montevina will likely last nearly a year as it's mobile platform before a refresh is made (~June 2009 and codenamed Calpella). Of course, in the meantime, they may release faster processors of the current Penryn 45nm design.

Nvidia is constantly tweaking their GPUs so it's likely before that before 2009, they might manage to squeeze a slightly faster GPU into the Z. So, instead of a 9300M, I could totally see them upgrade it to 9500M or 9600M if those get some sort of die shrink and run more power efficiently.

The SSD option will likely get a little more affordable (as well as the Blu-Ray drive option) simply due to supply/demand. SSD will likely get larger sizes as well since there seems to be a growing race between SSD manufacturers...especially the ones jumping in to take advantage of SanDisk's weak claim that you can't wring good performance out of them in Vista (which everyone is proving to be not-so-true).

Everything else is likely to stay the same since there aren't too many other components that they could upgrade unless they want to not stick with a pure Intel platform (which has perks).

 

Slightly off-topic but:

If you are able to move files on a gigabit network faster than around 35MB/s, even on a desktop, you are very lucky! An e-SATA or FW800 connection (provided it is full speed, ie through PCI-E not USB if implemented in an expresscard) should be faster than a gigabit connection. In practice, although a gigabit connection should provide a theoretical 100MBytes/s, it's usually as fast or slower than a USB2 at 48MBytes/s, and hits a ceiling around 35MB/s, especially under Vista.

Try to benchmark it and report the actual speed of your transfer through USB2 and gigabit!

This being said, on a laptop, I totally agree with you in theory, the gigabit ethernet is one of the reasons why I decided to get a VAIO rather than a Dell XPS at the time.

Unfortunately, i've done some benchmarks on my TZ and realized that the gigabit port was connected internally through a USB port, not PCI, and was sharing the bandwidth of all the other internal USB peripherals: BT, DVD, etc... Therefore, to get a bandwidth slightly above fast ethernet, I have to switch off all these peripherals (you can see the data throughput going up or down in real time as you switch the DVD on or off, even if it's not used!). I have no idea if it's the same on the SZ, or if it will be the case on the Z, but it's something watch out for, otherwise it's just as good to have a fast ethernet connection, gigabit becomes just a marketing tool...


Back to topic:
I really hope that blu-ray drives will be offered with 128 or 256 non raid ssd solution (less performance but more reasonable cost), with a 2.8gz CPU if possible. I don't think any port/connection will change on the chassis (thay rarely do). A backlit keyboard would be great, although I'm not sure it's possible with an isolated keyboard (I've not seen any yet).
But if I had to chose one thing, it would be one Blu-ray model available in Europe, either in December or January, so that I can have UK keyboard, WWAN, Bluray, good warranty and get my VAT back easily (I'm VAT registered). I'm going to hold off until then, and import from Japan if my wish is not granted at the next refresh.

 

I wanna add two things I just thought about:

- One pretty big indicator of what might come to the future Z is the alleged Macbook redesign slated for September. Since the Z has everything the Macbook has (and more) in a smaller package, it shouldn't be too hard to integrate whatever new tech Apple rolls out this time around.

- Also, it might be interesting to see how solid is the Blu-Ray playback when the first Zs are released. By that i mean the complete chain from the laptop to a home theater (HDCP handshakes, HDMI capabilities, lossless audio output etc). This particular point has been a little messy this year because every part of the chain had to get up to speed and only now are they getting there (on the desktop side at least).

Now, I know the Z is sold as a business laptop primarily, but since it offers a Bluray option, HDMI output and discreet graphics, it would make sense for it to be a top-notch home theater addition. So, my guess is, if the various parts of the equation are not working 100% yet, Sony might update those in future revisions (although this is more of an intel decision than a sony one).

 

I knew the DVD drive was connected internally through USB but the Ethernet as well? Thats not good, I'll be sure to turn off the DVD drive the next time I use the Ethernet port, thank you for the information!!!

I am curious as to why Sony has not put backlit keyboards in their models, except for the tiny UMPC UX series where it actually is pretty necessary with the very small keys.

 

Wow, that's a real surprise. I'll be interested to find out if the Ethernet on the SZ is also going to a USB on the board.

From my experience, the gigabit on the SZ has been pretty fast, but now I'm thinking I should benchmark it like you suggest.

 

ThinkLight FTW!

I think the reason for the USB-connected Ethernet and DVD in the TZ is almost certain to be related to it's size. Surely there must have been some compromises to fit so much gadgetry in such a tiny package...

 

While we're making assumptions here, is there a way to voice our opinions to Sony? Though I doubt if they care anyway.

 

I could not agree more. I can't use Sprint overseas. I want to be able to pop my sim chip in or at least have a GSM radio in it so I can use my AT&T account or a prepaid GSM card. Why did they cripple this important part of what is otherwise a beautifully engineered machine?

 

My guess is they crippled it to make money through network exclusivity deals - a la iPhone etc.
We're lucky in Europe as they only locked the config software and still included a sim slot (behind the battery) so with very little effort we can switch from Sony's 'preferred' provider (T-Mobile, in the UK anyway) for HSDPA. When my Z arrives I'm going to give T-Mobile a chance just because it's easy that way. If performance seems poor I might switch if I can find a network willing to give me a SIM without a dongle that I don't need.

 

That is what sony stands for... proprietary hardware and high prices, those are the reasons that always drew me away from sony until they released the Z with its overwhelming features (Screen quality etc...).

By the way I'm a "lucky" European with unlocked HSDPA but stuck with 3 damn preconfigs....

But at least the price already dropped 280€

 

Now that the new Dells are out, I can see a few things Sony could easily add to the future Zs by looking at what Dell has done:

- Something similar to the Dell USB Powershare, with USB charging of peripherals even whn the laptop is off.

- A new, imporved docking station, that handles better graphics (4 graphics ports) and Esata connections.

- more varied boradband options (ATT, etc)

And of course stuff that was already discussed previously in the thread: backlit keyboard, Esata, Displayport etc

If Dell could implement many of these things for a relatively cheap price, than Sony can do that too.

 

Agreed! when I travel I only take USB cables to charge my other stuff (phone etc) and I have to leave my laptop running all night.

Yes, they didn't do anything new with the dock , I'm still waiting for a 3.5 mm audio jack! But what do you mean by "4 graphics ports"? do you expect to run 4 screens off a laptop GPU??

eSATA on the dock? yes yes.

 

I won't run four monitors but I could run two plus a tv (via HDMI). Esata is indeed nice and is my biggest regret that the z doesn't have it, on the laptop or on the dock. 3.5" jack would be nice, hadn't thought of that.

Hopefully the next refresh will bring at least some of these things. Also, i'm waiting for reviews to see if the Z itself and the graphics port of the dock can handle Dual-link DVI to drive big monitors. If not, that would be another thing to add to the wishlist.

 

Interesting, on the SZ there is a piece of plastic to physically restrict use of the VGA port while the laptop is in the dock. On the Z dock, you can see this is the same, though it would appear that the HDMI is still usuable. I wonder if you can run two external monitors on the Z? (note that the SZ only allows DVI OR VGA out at any one time).

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