Z: Odds on whether PMD will be continued / won't work with the next version

My guess is 100%. I'm pretty convinced that if Sony does introduce a new updated PMD, it won't work with the current Z2. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they changed tack again next year / 18 months and went back to a one-box solution, abandoning the PMD concept.

I also don't think Sony get that in order for Light Peak to be anything other than minor leetness but something useful, it's got to be rolled out across their entire range.

What say you?

 

My prediction for the next PMD on the Z3 is that it's the same physical connector. I'd guess that they'd update the graphics card which will automatically make it useless on the Z2 because the drivers will not be compatible (per Sony standards). I'd think that connecting a Z2 PMD to a Z3 will also not work due to driver issues with the graphics card.

I would think that shortly after the Z3 comes out, some enterprising hacker will figure out a way to make the Z3 PMD compatible on a Z2 by doing some driver manipulating and the sort but it will come with some drawbacks such as a constantly running fan or some other undesirable outcomes. Thus making everyone with a Z2 just want to buy a Z3 more.

Eventually the PMD can get phased out once integrated graphics technology gets good enough that we don't need this "external mobile graphics" card thing. However, does that mean the reintroduction of the dock where the computer sits on it?

 

Ivy Bridge shakes things in the graphics side. We expect a 20 - 50% increase in GPU performance, a 5 - 15% increase in CPU performance. the base line is that Intel GPUs continue to lag significantly behind AMD and more importantly, they still aren't fast enough.
Next $ony top of the line laptops will still have a switchable graphics somehow, inside or out side is a matter of technical capability and to fulfill quality assurance of the product, if $ony manage to give us a PMD performance in single form-factor similar to Z2, that would be definitely better.
Its a total solution not easy to get/decide, and very much affected
by marketing.

 

I'm guessing that the IB/Z will have a PMD that's compatible with current PMD. However, that's not necessarily quite what you asked. The IB/Z PMD may have a new card in it in which case it would be updated. Or it could go with the same card since I don't know if they're going to make better use of the LP connection.

When Haswell becomes available, I think the PMD will be dropped from the Z (assuming: 1) Sony is still in the PC business; and 2) they are still making Zs) since Haswell graphics on it will be significantly improved and the use of physical media will be continuing its decline.

What I do not expect is an eGPU in any off-motherboard form. The Z is not targeted at gamers in terms of either price or performance. It's more of an executive toy. Even with SB, I consider the graphics power to be fine and it'll only get better. If someone wants to play games more than casually, they should probably get another machine.

 

I personally hope it'll signal the end of the 'let's sell these guys a totally different set of accessories every generation'. It's a Sony specialty and it's spectacularly dumb (but let's face it, this is just one of the gazillion dumb things Sony is, and has been doing since the Idei days) in the current climate.

Stable ports, uniform connectivity across lines and stable accessories means other people start making stuff to make those better. Third party support is less relevant in enterprise but those guys are familiar with that kind of stability from Dell, Lenovo and HP - and only Apple seems to have successfully moved it into the consumer space, where of course you get more accessorisation going on.

I don't get why everyone else in the consumer space is still so fixated in selling their own accessories in limited numbers. It never allows any kind of ecosystem to build up around the products. Light Peak allows Sony to get away from dedicated, and unique, docking stations for each model. It'll also mean they can give their ultrabook equivalents or lower-end portables / ultraportables more flexibility, and also allow them to continue pushing the envelope (albeit in hopefully a better finished product) with the Z range. Will they take that opportunity? My guess is that they'll blow it.

 

I agree that there are lots of things that 'could' or 'should' be done but while Sony Japan remains polite enough to let each market chose it's own offerings then I can't see much changing.
The first test of any and every product is when it is shown to the separate market buyers. When you think about the real allegiances of those people then it all starts to make sense. Logic not required...

 

Guys, PMD will survive as a concept, even if Sony decides to drop it in Z3. What however most of IT-tuned obsevrers may expect is that it is likely to be based on fully-fledged Thunderbolt port instead of current USB connector. It is almost inevitable that it will not comply to Z2 in terms of I/O connecting, regardless of the form that PMD will be transformed in (with the same hexa-angled chassis as now for sure). This sort of speculation is based on Sony's decision to join the alliance of Thunderbolt implementers.

I am afraid we desperately need some info about Z3. Engineers in Nagano have already got a working prototype of Z2 successor as I realize. Besides, VPC-T11, Sony's ultrabook, is ready to please us soon after the Ivy Bridge announce follows in early April.

 

What is this VPC-T11 that you speak of? Any other details you can give such as screen size and weight?

 

xxGenericSNxx, this is first Sony ultrabook. The proto was presented at CES 2012.

 

I list below all of the reasons why I disagree with you.

 

Old PMD works with the Ivy Bridge update.

This was more or less clear after it became known that the PMD "update" is just a rebrand. In fact, when I connect the old PMD to the new (SV)Z, it is now recognized as ATI HD 7670M...

And, of course, it is still crap when it comes to performance. Another Sony-job

 

Well, It's not really a new dock or a new notebook, is it.

Although technically it has a new GPU, it's really the same GPU as well. Also germane to your comment, the other thing I don't understand is why if you're going to take the GPU outboard you come up with a PMD that doesnt have any room for anything other than second-tier GPU's which would be only a slight improvement on what an updated Z11-style design might pack (though of course, with the intro of the HD4000 in the new Z the Z11 is truly superceded in terms of GPU).