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    nVidia 2015 mobile speculation thread

    Discussion in 'Gaming (Software and Graphics Cards)' started by Cloudfire, May 9, 2015.

  1. Mr.Koala

    Mr.Koala Notebook Virtuoso

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    On the other side of the fence AMD seems to develop a habit of throwing more GDDR5 into anything middle/high range. Between the 8GB 390 which ironically has double the VRAM of Fiji V1 and the new 32GB FirePro I get the feeling there might be a overstock problem among AIB partners or something.

    But wait a minute, the high density GDDR5 dies are different from the old ones. Where did all those dies come from? And who makes that enormous 2G B die for the S9170? Did something happen to GDDR5 availability which enabled both NV and AMD to design those configs?
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2015
  2. NuclearLizard

    NuclearLizard Notebook Deity

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    Hello bit new here, figured id throw my two cents into the ring.

    my theory as to the sudden surge of more gddr5 on cards would be manufacturers dumping stuck for when hbm becomes the new standard, so we may see a lot of shiny things coming out of the woods that may or may not have been in development or are now affordable due to people dumping their stores.
     
  3. J.Dre

    J.Dre Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Just give me full GM204 2048 cores on a 980MX, and I'll be happy. Both realistic and a fair improvement over the 980M.

    Just FYI: It would be around 30% better, give or take some depending on the game.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2015
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  4. NuclearLizard

    NuclearLizard Notebook Deity

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    In all honesty im inclined to share that sentiment with you. lol i have a 765m in my machine now and im planning to upgrade, id like to get something big and beefy for my next computer.
     
  5. Any_Key

    Any_Key Notebook Evangelist

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    In the event that all the posted rumor information turns into fact the power requirements, the cost, the potential heating issues, all seem to point towards the same group as Titan buyers... who are also into mobile. Sounds like a very limited run. A refresh round of their maxwell cards would have been more interesting to me than this card.
     
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  6. Cakefish

    Cakefish ¯\_(?)_/¯

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    Yeah, the power limits are way too much for the average 15.6" 980M notebook, which is really disappointing.

    I mean, I'd be fine with it if they also were making a slightly less power hungry chip that could sit in between the 980M and this Titan-class GPU.

    I love the fact that notebooks will finally have a truly desktop-crushing single GPU available but really disappointed that they are simultaneously ignoring that 100-125W sweet spot that a 2048 core GM204 would have excelled in.
     
  7. Kevin

    Kevin Egregious

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    Except that.... they won't.
     
  8. NuclearLizard

    NuclearLizard Notebook Deity

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    I just hope that the continued focus on effeciency will one day allow parity between consumer mobile and desktop gpu's. A pipe dream probably but apparently the gap has been closing quite well.

    I'd say the desktop guys can keep the big beefy flagships like the titan. Id be content and sated with a 980 in my rig.
     
  9. n=1

    n=1 YEAH SCIENCE!

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    The gap is closing, but I doubt we'll ever see them achieve parity.

    A desktop has (significantly) higher thermal and power headroom, so whatever a laptop can do, there's no reason a desktop can't do better.
     
  10. Splintah

    Splintah Notebook Deity

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    Quantum GPUs might do it

    Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk
     
  11. Cakefish

    Cakefish ¯\_(?)_/¯

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    The rumours put this new Titan-class mobile flagship above the desktop 980 in terms of performance.
     
  12. NuclearLizard

    NuclearLizard Notebook Deity

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    This is true, however hopefully we can get close I wouldnt mind trading 5-10% stock performance for the ability to have all my stuff in one self contained unit.

    who knows, those scientists are always finding new ways of doing things. lol
     
  13. n=1

    n=1 YEAH SCIENCE!

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    Are we still playing along with this rumor? I thought it was pretty much agreed it's just not physically possible on 28nm.

    Btw desktops have Titan X and 980 Ti.
     
  14. Cakefish

    Cakefish ¯\_(?)_/¯

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    Haha well I didn't mean literally outperforming all desktops, but it's impressive that it will outperform a 980, which is still regarded as a high end card. Also AMD Fury too.

    I'm sceptical, but seeing as I take it as bad news, it'll probably come true. Fate tends to work like that!
     
  15. J.Dre

    J.Dre Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    I think NVIDIA will continue the trend that mobile cards perform like last-generation desktop cards. If that remains true, the 1080M (Pascal) should perform close to the 980Ti. And because of this, I think Pascal desktop GPU's will jump pretty far ahead of mobile, in regards to performance - the gap will widen.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2015
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  16. NuclearLizard

    NuclearLizard Notebook Deity

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    baaaahhhhh, I hope they manage to keep it similar in performance. i get pestered enough as is for showing up to lan parties or shopping for gaming notebooks. :)

    though i would have to agree if that NvLink comes to consumer i can see it being a whole lot easier to implement on the desktop than the average gaming notebook.
     
  17. Splintah

    Splintah Notebook Deity

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    Can't wait to drop that in my gt72
     
  18. Cakefish

    Cakefish ¯\_(?)_/¯

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    All thanks to AMD abandoning the gaming notebook market. So sad.
     
  19. ratinox

    ratinox Notebook Deity

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    No. All thanks to iOS and Android demolishing notebook sales.
     
  20. octiceps

    octiceps Nimrod

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    AMD would have money from that if it didn't give Adreno away to Qualcomm
     
  21. HTWingNut

    HTWingNut Potato

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    iOS and Android have nothing to do with demolishing *gaming* notebook sales. And laptop sales have leveled off at about 300 million units annually, with a majority of them Windows based. That's still a LOT of notebooks.
     
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  22. Kevin

    Kevin Egregious

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    And we all know that's physically and thermally impossible, right? RiGHT?!
     
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  23. ratinox

    ratinox Notebook Deity

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    True, but I'll cut AMD some slack on this particular mistake because it was only a mistake three years later. Everyone except Apple saw netbooks as the near-future of consumer computing and Fusion was poised to become the king of the hill. Apple was the exception simply because they saw netbooks as a throwback to G3 PowerBooks.

    Then the "magical" iPad was introduced and almost every pundit expected it to be another Steve Jobs flop like the G4 Cube and the no-button Shuffle, just an oversized, horribly overpriced iPod Touch.

    The rest, as they say, is history.


    That 300 million units isn't just notebooks. It's all personal computers including notebooks, netbooks, desktops, all-in-ones, set-tops, etc. Everything except tablets. Note the spike in 2010, the year of the netbook. Note the lack of growth in 2011 and 2012. Note the decline in 2013 "caused by the switch to pads."

    Meanwhile, ~195 million tablets were sold in 2013 and ~216 million were sold in 2014. Gartner expects tablet sales to surpass personal computer sales this year:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tablet_computer (and search for "Market Share")

    The PC market growth as predicted in 2010 didn't happen. It was gutted by tablet sales.
     
  24. n=1

    n=1 YEAH SCIENCE!

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    On a sort-of-OT-yet-somewhat-related note: Intel's stock hit its 52 week low today. Might be a good time to pick up some shares if you're into the stock market.
     
  25. NuclearLizard

    NuclearLizard Notebook Deity

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    yea i just saw that today 28 USD a peice at the time of writing. still a small fortune in my canadian money. ;) ;)
    maybe we can all buy up the intel stocks and get them to give us products we want. lol
     
  26. Robbo99999

    Robbo99999 Notebook Prophet

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    Wow, just found this thread, 990M with 2500 cores - mighty impressive for 28nm mobile! I would like to see this happen, unfortunately likely to be incompatible with my notebook, just like the 980M/970M!
     
  27. NuclearLizard

    NuclearLizard Notebook Deity

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    i have no idea, i dobt even know where people are dinding this info. if anyone could provide links id love to read them.
     
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  28. Kaozm

    Kaozm Notebook Evangelist

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    Last edited: Jul 24, 2015
  29. Kommando

    Kommando Notebook Evangelist

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    A, some catchy marketing buzzwords. But the "exclusive" informations state an cpu improvement of "up to" 10% which is the same than for previous generations. You'll always find one benchmark which will prove this. Especially since it isn't connected to any other information like "same MHz". ;)
     
  30. M0rdresh

    M0rdresh Notebook Consultant

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    The only possible scenario when they can reach parity is when the research & development on desktops has vastly slowed down due to a hypothetically declining desktop market. In other words, as long as they have incentive to innovate on desktop technology a mobile spec will never be on par with it due to the form factor differences.

    However the more important question is to what extent parity will be required for feasible mobile gaming the next three to five years, or alternatively to what extent developers will capitalize on high-end desktop hardware. Which remains questionable as the console hardware still plays an important role in game design, it's still largely a 'let's design for console and see what extra's we can have on PC' over a more preferable 'design for PC, scale down on console'.

    After all, the biggest innovation, if you can call it that, on desktop gaming is simple going 4K, I cant remember any particular graphics technology that amazed me the last couple of years. So if laptop gaming stays at 1080p (which it should imo as the added-value of a 4K resolution on 15inch or even 17inch is high questionable aside from stat drooling, just my 2c), it can remain very competitive performance wise.
     
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  31. ratinox

    ratinox Notebook Deity

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    Which, even if this happens, is only part of the picture. GPGPU has become a Seriously Big Deal. The US Department of Energy's next generation of supercomputers are being designed to use NVLink. Or perhaps NVLink is being developed for the DoE supercomputers. Either way, GPGPU is the shiznitz in high-performance computing.

    "Mobile gaming" means smartphones and tablets for the foreseeable future.

    FWIW, I don't agree that "design for PC and scale down on console" is in any way preferable unless you want the console version to tank and take the studio's reputation and profitability with it. Game tanks, studio dies, no more games for any platform from that studio. All gamers lose.

    PC gaming has had 4 genuine innovations ever. We had high quality, real-time audio generation with early Sound Blaster cards, followed by many imitators. We had Voodoo Graphics, the first consumer-oriented 3D processing board, followed by many imitators. We had DirectX, a collection of standardized APIs that reduced or eliminated the need for developers to code specifically for various audio and video hardware. And, of course, the IBM PC itself. Almost everything else has been evolutionary: more, faster, cheaper.

    Except screens. 4K is the evolution of a throwback. 1080p, so-called "Full HD". It originally is part of a digital broadcast TV specification that was drafted in the early 1990s. It's since become a marketing gimmick intended to distract you from the fact that you're getting less than what you could have had.

    Behind me, on my other desk, is an old, pre-HD LCD monitor. It's 1600x1200. Think about that. My 15-year-old monitor is within 0.1MP of Full HD. High definition was definitely an improvement for television but for computer displays? Nope. It was parity. We've been stuck with that because consumers who don't know better see it as superior to their old TVs, which it is, but not inferior to the real top-end high resolution displays, which they don't even know exist.

    You can point fingers at AMD dropping the ball for why nVidia haven't been pushing their envelope. I disagree; that's only part of it. CGA -> VGA -> SVGA -> XGA -> whatever, the more or less steady progression of increasing display resolutions was a driving force behind GPU performance improvements. That stopped around 2005 when monitor resolutions stopped increasing. There have been some exceptions, notably from Apple, but for the most part computer displays have been 1280x720, 1920x1080, and occasionally 1330x768 for the past decade. Then we got blind-sided by Hollywood pushing 4K, playing up the mass consumer perception that 4K is better than their old HDTVs, in order to drive HDCP adoption and higher content prices.
     
  32. Robbo99999

    Robbo99999 Notebook Prophet

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    Some people are always gonna want those bigger & higher resolutions screens (4K and beyond), plus multiple monitors joined together too - so there's always a market (small) for ultra high end desktop GPUs. Probably always gonna be a market for high performance professional desktop GPUs too.
     
  33. Phase

    Phase Notebook Evangelist

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    anyone think instead of a 990m, they will just do a 1080m and add a 1070m and what not? seems kind of odd that people who buy the second best option for notebooks will have to wait almost 2 years to even upgrade
     
  34. ratinox

    ratinox Notebook Deity

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    nVidia aren't going to set up a new product line number for one card. If this thing exists (which I will continue not to believe until nVidia announces it) then it'll be given a Ti or Titan branding of some sort.
     
  35. Phase

    Phase Notebook Evangelist

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    i meant why would they not just release a whole new series? they do every year. heck last year they did two series of mobile gpus lol. werent the 680m,780m, and 880m all kepler?
     
  36. J.Dre

    J.Dre Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    The 1000 series is for Pascal. There probably won't be a GTX 990M unless they release a GTX 990. They went out of their way, skipping 800 series desktop cards, to match the naming schemes of mobile and desktop. I doubt they'd intentionally screw that up again. :p

    I've always wanted a GTX 970MX (1664 cores) and GTX 980MX (2048 cores). Should put us in the realm of GTX 970 and GTX 980 performance. In my opinion, this seems reasonable, as for speculating about what will happen this year (if anything). It may be smart for them to launch these two cards in case of delays of Pascal and HBM2. It'll hold off the enthusiasts and fanboys for a while.

    For those who don't yet know, the current 980M performs like a GTX 780 (or GTX 970). So, this would be a nice jump. :)
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2015
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  37. ratinox

    ratinox Notebook Deity

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    It would be suicidal.

    Pascal is a year out, more or less. A 2015 Maxwell refresh that is compelling enough to to tempt buyers now will harm Pascal sales next year. No way are nVidia going to intentionally do anything to make their next architecture look bad.

    Besides, it's too late to launch a new product line. Skylake is shipping in a few weeks. Vendors have been taking pre-orders for the past month. If nVidia had a new line then it would have been announced back in April or May so as to ride the Skylake hype train through the 2015 holidays. That didn't happen.
     
  38. Phase

    Phase Notebook Evangelist

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    so how come every other architecture got refreshes and maxwell is just a one time thing?
     
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  39. Zero989

    Zero989 Notebook Virtuoso

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    OEMs push for NEW, even if refreshed, tech to sell their machines. It's not just up to nVIDIA. Has nVIDIA ever gone through a year with nothing to add?
     
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  40. Cakefish

    Cakefish ¯\_(?)_/¯

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    Nope, not yet.
     
  41. M0rdresh

    M0rdresh Notebook Consultant

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    Not sure what you are trying to proof professor, but while my choice of words wasn't ideal you perfectly knew what I meant in the context of what we are discussing here.
     
  42. ratinox

    ratinox Notebook Deity

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    GTX 900 series is second generation Maxwell.
     
  43. Robbo99999

    Robbo99999 Notebook Prophet

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    I don't think that's properly applicable. 750ti was indeed the first Maxwell card, but that one was just released on it's own, so not really 'proper' to call that their first generation, and then the 980/970 came out. To me it seems there's only been one proper generation of Maxwell cards so far - it's not like how it was with the complete range of 6 series Kepler cards being the first generation and then the 700 series Kepler cards being the second generation.
     
  44. ratinox

    ratinox Notebook Deity

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    I'll give you a point because I did incorrectly suggest that the 900-series is all GM20x which is not true. Still, nVidia say that the three GM20x chips are second generation Maxwell and I think that's what matters most.
     
  45. Robbo99999

    Robbo99999 Notebook Prophet

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    Yes, I see what you're saying about the GM107 for 750ti, and the GM20x therefore being the second generation, but don't think the actual numbers are that important. GM107 was just the one card (not a complete range of cards unlike Kepler's 600 series cards), so we've not really had 2 generations of cards on Maxwell from a consumers perspective. Also, a lot of cards were based off GK104 for the first generation Kepler cards (600 series), and then the second generation of Kepler cards (700 series) came about also made from GK104 (780) as well as GK110 (780ti), so from just a pure numbering perspective (like GK104/GK110) I don't see why they can't release another generation of Maxwell just because they've already used GM107 & GM20x. I still think they could release new Maxwell cards either on GM20x with increased clock speeds or perhaps even new chips.
     
  46. ratinox

    ratinox Notebook Deity

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    I'm sure they could. This does not mean they will. Like I wrote before: a strong refresh now would harm Pascal sales and it's too late to get a weaksauce refresh riding on the Skylake gravy train.
     
  47. Robbo99999

    Robbo99999 Notebook Prophet

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    Pascal is slated for when in 2016 though? If it's not really early 2016, then that's quite a long time to wait with nothing new being released. I think if Pascal is not released before end of Q1 that they'll want to bring some new products onto the market in the form of Maxwell.
     
  48. HTWingNut

    HTWingNut Potato

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    I wouldn't expect Pascal here until late Q2 next year.

    Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk
     
  49. Splintah

    Splintah Notebook Deity

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    I'm guessing about april or may of 2016
     
  50. Robbo99999

    Robbo99999 Notebook Prophet

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    I reckon then that if either of your guesses are accurate, I think we'll see some more high end Maxwell mobile GPUs released before then. EDIT: 980M has been out since about Nov last year, so there's bound to be another high end Maxwell release before next year.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2015
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